The Long Slow Primary Race Update

Hey!  My apologies for not posting sooner but I've been busy with life in general and wifi problems have kept me largely unable to connect until now.  So let's get to a brief spiel on the current Presidential race.

Today is the Democratic primary in South Carolina.  By most accounts Hillary Clinton will be the likely winner.  The question isn't that as much as whether Bernie Sanders can crack what Clinton supporters have called the 'firewall" she has in that state, especially among African American voters.  Given that, superdelegates notwithstanding (and they can switch their support between now and the convention), Clinton beat Sanders by a little over five points in the Nevada caucus but only has one or two more actual delegates this could put her ahead - as well as give her a boost for Super tuesday in a few days.

While the media will likely claim this is it, there are still states who have caucuses and primaries after Super Tuesday and what happens there is anyone's guess.  Yes, it's possible that the pundits will be right and Clinton will get the nomination but Sanders can also make a dent in these states and make the race close enough that it will take some time to determine who actually gets it.  Regardless, it's not over yet on this side of the race.

As for the Republicans, Donald Trump is appearing to be unshakable for the party's nomination, much to the supposed chagrin of the GOP establishment.  The irony here is that Trump's positions aren't that much scarier than Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, or John Kasich.  All are going extreme right (and some even view Cruz as worse than the Donald).  However, Trump's refusal to disavow support from white supremacists and his unwillingness to see where his ego can be a detriment if he actually got the nomination is what makes him scary - especially when polls in SC and Nevada find Trump supporters actually believing that the executive order to end slavery was wrong and that in SC 20% of his supporters consider themselves to be "white supremacists".

There are some ironic moments here.  For example, in South Carolina, one percent of Ben Carson supporters consider themselves "white supremacists."  While that is a dark comedy that could almost write itself, it does still bode some concern. Also, the fact that Trump is leading mongst conservative christians (i.e.:  fundamentalists/evangelicals/charismatics - I'm using all three terms because they differ amongst themselves.  Granted they differ in such subtle ways many would think they're all evangelicals but it's important to not that).  Put aside that he called Second Corinthians "two corinthians" the fact that he's pandering by claiming he'll strengthen a religion that already faces way less blowback than other faith traditions shows that he may be more than willing to destroy the First Amendment for everyone else in order to protect those who vote for him.

What's happens this Tuesday for either party can either go like many of the polls predict - or they might not.  Considering that each of the two parties has one candidate people in their party establishment didn't expect to stick around this around means things can be uncertain until the votes are counted and delegates get counted and divided.

P.S.:  Almost forgot to mention  how this has shaken up the GOP over the past few weeks with Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore dropping out before SC and the confirmation of Jeb Bush's fall from presumed front runner to also ran after Trump got all the delegates in South Carolina.  Who will be the next to fall?  Who knows but more will fall on the right side of the spectrum.