THE TROUBLE WITH NORMAL 2024 ELECTION SUGGESTIONS POST

 

First, our apologies for being late posting this. We're hoping to have it up earlier this week but some life obligations got in the way.

Welcome to The Trouble With Normal's 2024 election selections post. This is where we will briefly go over some parts of the upcoming election in two and a half weeks, inform you of what's at stake, and offer our opinions.

At this point some of you are saying, "So so these are your election endorsements then?" though this post kind of goes into that territory there is one difference between this and an endorsement. In this post we will not tell you who to vote for. We will, however, explain what's at stake on certain issues and candidates if they get elected and offer our suggestions on who you shouldn't vote for.

Also, before we go any further, we have to add one small caveat. We know we can't look at every single seat up for collapses selection or every single issue. Because of this will try to focus on the largest ones plus some of the biggest ones in our own backyard. Now that the qualifiers are out of the way let's get to the post.

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Let's start at the top, shall we? I'm talking about the presidential race between vice president Kamala Harris and former electoral vote winner Donny (sometimes referred to in this blog and print zine as the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago). We haven't touched on who to vote for on this mainly because we're fairly certain the majority of our readers who are eligible to vote in US elections have the basic sense not to vote for a man who brags about wanting to be "dictator for a day," talks about locking up his political opposition, refuses to admit that he lost the 2020 election despite overwhelming evidence and 60 failed lawsuits, brags about appointing the Supreme Court Justices that overturned Roe v Wade (and then claims that "everybody wanted Roe overturned" - a lie so big I'm surprised Donny didn't spontaneously combust) or his use of Nazi adjacent talking points to describe migrants and trans people.  While I know a few of you will probably insist on voting third party I'm fairly certain that the majority of our readers who are eligible to vote in the election on November 5th see Donny's hate-filled lies and rhetoric for what it is and will do what is necessary, including voting, to make sure he doesn't resume the job he screwed up the first time around

That doesn't mean that Kamala Harris doesn't have issues. She does deserve criticism regarding her days as a prosecutor and California Attorney General, as well as a rather tepid response to people protesting over conditions related to the war in Gaza. Having said that, I also realize that she's at least a grown up compared to the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago and would be very unlikely to turn the us into a  white conservative christian theocratic ethno state.  Thus, as I said earlier, while some readers may insist on voting third party I understand why many of our readers would be leaning towards the Harris/Walz ticket if forced to choose between her and Donny.

From here we're going to go to some more statewide issues coming from our original stomping grounds.

ON THE BALLOT - MO

Let's start with Missouri. Even though I no longer exist there to a point where I can be registered voter there our original home base is in Columbia (where we still have a P.O. Box) and we do have some readers living there. So this is for them.

When it comes for the seat up for reelection to the U.S. Senate it's safe to say that most of our readers who are registered voters in Missouri have the common basic sense not to vote for the guy who contested the 2020 election when was up for certification on January 6, 2021, raise the fist when he saw the MAGA foot soldiers for the coup attempt Marching towards the capital only to run into hiding when it occurred to him that he might be a target as well as those on the other side. Our readers who can vote in the show me state most likely understand that a man claiming small town values but was educated at a Jesuit Prep School in Kansas City who would later go to the Ivy Leagues for college most likely doesn't give a damn about what the least amongst his constituents are going through. Though there are some third party candidates running for the spot it might make more sense to choose the person most likely to remove this clown who whines constantly about the lack of masculinity from the U.S. Senate and let him ponder his thoughts in his Virginia home, where many Missouri residents suspect he really lives.

From that let's go to most of the amendments to be voted on thanks to ballot initiatives (or ballot measures as they're sometimes called).  For our readers who are registered voters in Missouri our suggestions are as follows.

Amendment 2: Would legalize sports betting if passed. A bit on the fence on this one so we suggest readers vote their conscience on this issue.

Amendment 3: If passed, this amendment would Missouri's ban on abortion and establishes a constitutional right and to make decisions about reproductive Health Care, including abortion and contraceptives.  YES!

We suggest a yes vote on this measure because it's the right thing for these decisions we made by whoever can get pregnant and the government should stay out of it.

Amendment 5: Would allow the Missouri Gaming Commission to issue a gambling boat license near the Lake of the Ozarks on the Osage River. Like amendment 2, we suggest voting your conscience on this.

Amendment 7: Would make the Missouri Constitution consistent with state law I only allowing citizens of the US to vote. It also would prohibit ranked choice voting.  Since non-citizens already cannot vote in elections this is redundant.

We suggest voting no on this just on the amendment prohibiting ranked choice voting alone. Given how the Missouri State Legislature tends to work if it's writing the Constitution this could totally be abused and used to suppress votes amongst those the Repub party doesn't want voting.

Proposition A: Would raise Missouri's minimum wage to $13.75 an hour on January 1st and increase the hourly wage to $15.00 an hour in January 2026.  Well $15/hour hasn't been a living wage in a while it's still an improvement so YES on this one.

ON THE BALLOT - IA

Now let's head up to the state directly north of Missouri - Iowa.  Yeah, the zine hasn't gotten much of a foothold there but there are a handful of people that read TTWN on occasion up in those parts so this is for them.

The Iowa ballot's important things are a little different than down in MO (a state they consider part of the South - I'm serious).  For one, there are no ballot measures allowed there so residents who can vote aren’t able to bring the issue of reproductive health care to a vote (which especially angers those Iowans against the recent abortion ban the Iowa Supreme Court ruled to let take effect earlier this year).  Also, neither of Iowa's U.S. Senators is up for re-election this year.  This leaves the four congressional seats open (all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are two year terms).  There are a couple of constitutional amendments on the ballots (a process where it has to be introduced by a state legislator and then go through a several year process before appearing on the ballot) so let's look at those.

One ballot measure would change Iowa’s constitution from language saying that Every citizen of the U.S." can vote to "only a citizen of the U.S." can vote.  It would also allow 17 year olds to vote in primary elections as long as they turned 18 by the time of the general election.  The latter part is a good thing but the former is redundant.   I don't know whether the goal of this is to keep 17 year old from voting in primaries or just to get right wing talking points into votes (it's already illegal for non citizens to vote in U.S. elections).

The other ballot measure would specify that if the Governor is somehow removed from office via death, resignation et al, then the Lt, Governor would assume office.  This is fairly boiler plate but shouldn't that be something the governor can already do? Because of that I’m leaning towards suggesting no on this one.

BACK TO THE BIG PICTURE

With many states having Senators up for reelection as well as every House seat nationally along with various state legislature races up for grabs  Since there's too many for us to study up on, much less suggest, I do have to assume some things.

If you're reading this odds are you're already a reader of the zine, the blog, or both.  If not, you got a link to this from a friend who does.  As I said earlier it's fairly safe to assume that the majority of TTWN readers aren't going to, or are at least extremely unlikely to, vote for the party that gaslights most of the population, the refuses to admit publicly that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, and are more interested in culture war talking points than actually helping the American people.  As a result I don't feel we need to say much on which party to support on this front. 

Again, I know some readers insist on third party voting (which would be less stressful to worry about if we had nationwide ranked choice voting) but we understand readers choosing whom they consider to be the 'lesser evil" candidates given what we currently face.

JUDICIAL CHOICES

Finally we'll offer up some advice regarding judges up for office or whether some state supreme court judges should be retained.  Since there are likely too many sets up for grabs nationally to comment on this we'll leave things simple - if a judge up for election or a judge on a State Supreme Court (not to be confused to SCOTUS) ruled or voted in favor of an abortion ban or to make sure a ballot measure on the issue doesn't make it to the ballot despite having more than enough signatures then vote them out of a job.  MAKE SURE THEY DON'T GET RETAINED FOR ANOTHER TERM ON THE BENCH.

We'll look at the MO Supreme Court, which by a 4-3 vote, finally allowed Amendment 3 to be on the ballot for the 2024 election.  It was the final shot of a long attempt by the Repub run state legislature and judges to make sure Missourians couldn't vote on it. Two of those three judges who voted not to let Amendment 4 appear on the ballot for the 2024 election (Kelly Broniec, Ginger Gooch) are on the ballot to be retained.  I’m fairly certain most of our readers in Missouri who are registered to vote there will have no problem voting NO on these two for general principles. 

While Iowa doesn’t have abortion on the ballot, one of the Iowa Supreme Court Justices who voted to uphold Iowa’s strict abortion ban (David May) is up for retention on the ballot.  I urge any readers in Iowa who are registered to vote there to vote NO on this.

OVERALL....

I know we’re a little late on this there’s very slightly over two weeks to go until the 2024 election.  However, since this is the time when the media and political figures offer their endorsements it’s fitting to offer our suggestions.

Again, we’re not endorsing in the typical sense.  We know that the majority of TTWN readers (either of the blog, the print zine, the website, or some combination thereof) already have the common sense and knowledge to vote against the party whose leader brags about wanting to be "dictator for a day" if elected, talks about locking up – and possibly killing - his political opposition, refuses to admit that he lost the 2020 election, brags about appointing the Supreme Court Justices that overturned Roe v Wade (and then claims that "everybody wanted Roe overturned" - a lie so big I'm surprised Donny didn't spontaneously combust) or his use of Nazi adjacent talking points to describe migrants and trans people.

Most of our readers already know not to support or vote for the candidates of a political party that seeks to turn this country into a christian nationalist ethno state in a back door manner via Project 2025, This isn’t rocket science but a general guess of where the people reading this lean. 

So, what about those who have just stumbled upon this. The ones who don’t pay attention to politics and think that maybe putting the guy I think our readers don’t like back in wouldn’t be all bad. For them I have some questions.

Do you think that the decision over whether or not to carry a pregnancy to term, or even to use birth control, should lie with government bureaucrats or with those who can get pregnant? 

Do you think that climate change (and the possibility of climate collapse) is a serious problem and that government should hold those forces polluting the world accountable?

Do you think that systemic racism is real and that we can’t move forward as a nation unless we do something concrete to deal with our toxic history so we don’t repeat those mistakes in the future?  

Do you think that the minimum wage should be a living wage and that anybody saying it should be abolished without having any safety net for the least amongst us is dangerous? 

Do you think the right to protest is part of the core of our nation at its best and that any force that wants to stomp that out is a threat to our country?

So If you think the government should stay out of people’s reproductive decisions, that climate change is real and stronger steps need to be taken to change course, the systemic racism has to be addressed in order to fight the racism that many non white people current face, that a living wage is needed in order to lessen the effects of poverty, and that protest is a necessary part of making change in this country, what should you do?

If you’re new to TTWN and you think the statements in the previous paragraphs are the correct answers to those questions then I suggest that you don’t vote for the party whose leader brags about wanting to be "dictator for a day" if elected, talks about locking up – and possibly killing - his political opposition, refuses to admit that he lost the 2020 election, brags about appointing the Supreme Court Justices that overturned Roe v Wade (and then claims that "everybody wanted Roe overturned" - a lie so big I'm surprised Donny didn't spontaneously combust) or his use of Nazi adjacent talking points to describe migrants and trans people, just to name a few things off the tops of our heads.

You have two weeks – and a lot is at stake.  Those are our suggestions regarding the 2024 election. If you’re a long time reader or you’re new but got the hint of the last few paragraphs in regards of whom not to vote for – you pretty much know what to do from here.

THIRTY THIRTY THIRTY FIVE MORE DAYS TO GO - UNTIL THE NEXT ELECTION.

 My apologies for being out of the loop for a while. I meant to come back to the blog sooner but the obligations of Life got in the way. With that in mind, let's talk about the 2024 presidential election.

As I post this we have only 35 days to go until November 5, 2024 - election day in the United States. This has been a journey full of negative campaign ads, primary ups and downs that took candidates by surprise, and even a change at the top of the ticket for one party. But we are here now. On the presidential side it is down to either the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago (a/k/a.: former electoral vote winner Donny) for the repubs and current vice president Kamala Harris for the Democrats. Will probably be going into some of the details later on as we head closer to election day but, for now, I thought it would be a good idea to point out a few things as those readers in the U.S. navigate the final stretch of the election season.

First, while a lot of people may want to take the polls at face value it should be pointed out that former electoral vote winner Donny can still win this damn thing. The polls in the "swing States" where, thanks to the Electoral College, seem to be the only ones that matter in the eyes of the mainstream media, show The Mad Fuhrer and Kamala neck and neck - and those of Harris's lead being within the margin of error. While we are at a point in the race where election polls begin to matter, the most important one and the only one that really matters is the election itself. Because of this the polls should be taken with a grain of salt. A prime example why they should be taken as such is that on Election Day 2016 Donny had a reported approval rating of less than 20% yet still won the electoral vote ( Hillary Clinton still won the popular vote but, because the Electoral College, the popular vote doesn't really matter). Does this mean that Donny's guaranteed another victory? No of course not. I'm just saying we should be more careful and not jump to conclusions this close to election day.

It's at this point that we should probably look at another media framing that popped up briefly in the last few months. There were a couple media sources that compared vice president Harris to the last woman who ran for president, former first lady Hillary Clinton in 2016. Admittedly, the fact both are women is one thing that makes for easy comments among writers of political news think pieces. However, while there seem to be some similarities (such as an apparent lead in the polls leading up to election day) Harris and Clinton differ in enough ways to make this comparison not exactly and not entirely accurate. Both in the circumstances of how they entered the race and how they're approaching it so far. Again, this is a tight race and people are looking for easy comparisons. This one though is flawed at best.

From here let's take a look at the vice presidential candidates. Former electoral vote winner Donny's choice of OH Senator J.D. Vance seemed to be a pic that could be divisive as much as the media perception that it would help Donny. This was at a time when Joe Biden was still running for re-election and it was assumed that vice president Harris would still be Vance's rival. However, biting stepping down from the presidential race on July 21, 2024 changed things. His encouragement for the Democrats to support moving vice president Harris into being his successor created the change of enthusiasm and over time created the sharp turnaround for the Democratic Party's fortunes. Her choice of MN Gov. Tim Walz as a running mate took expectations sideways, especially when he managed to point out the weirdness among much of the Repub Party platform, and in Project 2025. This makes the vice presidential candidate debate tonight one that will pique curiosity for a lot of people. Though some people say the debate performance of these two shouldn't mean that much the fact is it's a possibility that any president could die before their term in office is up. With Donny's age and perceived health issues now on sharper focus after Biden leaving the race it shows there's definitely a chance that Vance could end up president before Donny's term would be up due to issues related to age, health, and a job that is extremely stress related. This adds gravity to the vice presidential debate that might not normally exist in another race or another time.

Then there's the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago's increasingly angry and violent rhetoric during his rallies. Referring to immigrants and migrants as vermin he is stirring up more anger amongst his base to to view those who choose to come to this country (especially those of a different race) as less than human in the process. Add to this is repeated threats to prosecute and lock up his political opponents as well as him still claiming that the 2020 election was stolen and it seems that all the attempts to make Donny look less unhinged or even rational in comparison (a new term, sanewashing, has emerged in political press circles to describe this) are doing a disservice to the American people. Because of this, and the fact that you would almost definitely enact much of project 2025 if he gets in office again, he has proven that that under no circumstances should he get this job a second time.

That choice, however, up to the American people and the Electoral College. The fact that there are still undecided voters at the stage of the game leads one to wonder what exactly is going on but, to some degree, that's the case every election. While I won't tell people who to vote for a clear look between what Harris is proposing and the threats and authoritarian leanings being offered by Donny should make this an obvious choice.

We have 36 or so days to go. We'll see what goes down in those days and how it affects the election. Until then, pay attention to the issues attention to issues and be on the lookout for misinformation - there's a shit ton of it out there.

The Curious Continuing Case of Joe Biden and Whether He Should Keep Running For Re-election or Not

 It's July 2024 and it's been more or less two weeks since the first presidential debate of the 2024 race between current president Joe Biden and former electoral vote winner Donny. The earliest debate ever for an American presidential race, it was also one that found Biden struggling both with a reported cold and having to both answer questions wow doing the sole job of fact checking his predecessor while Donny seemed to pile on the gish gallop and refusing to answer one question. In the wake of a bad debate performance there been a number of calls for President Biden to drop out oh and not seek a second term, thus leaving the race open to someone these people feel can handle the task of a battle with the former electoral vote winner and keep him from returning to office in November.

Personally, I'm not sure whether Biden should drop out of the race or not. Yes he did bad and was struggling early on but he did pick up more as the debate continued. I was intending this to be a straightforward post commenting on the debate itself but since we seem to be unable to avoid this issue it's clear that it needs to be discussed.

First let's address the debate itself. It's an unavoidable fact that President Biden faltered here. Some reports since claimed by an even admitted to trying to stay awake under the debate stage as a result of international travel. Add to this the early explanation that he had a cold and some of this appears to make sense. However, President Biden needed to bring the energy he had during the State of Union Address a few months earlier to this debate, which he unfortunately didn't.

This wasn't a win for the other side though. Former electoral vote winner Donny veered quickly to his talking points projecting racism, and projection that early on actually seemed to turn some debate watchers off. This was an instance where he needed to give the illusion that he was a nice person somehow managed to get Biden a minor bump in the polls afterwards (though this has reportedly reversed itself since).

That's still doesn't stop the party insiders, consultants, pundits and others who are now calling for Biden to step down. Motivated by a growing fear that keeping Biden in the race will tank any chance of keeping Donny from winning in November they're hoping that pulling out before the convention would still give them time to make up the gap. I understand this concern (I'm worried as well) but there are a couple of things we need to take into consideration when looking at the possibility of President Biden dropping out the race.

WHO WOULD REPLACE HIM?

With the election only four months away any decision by Joe Biden to leave the Presidential race brings about the question of who would replace him.

The seemingly obvious answer would be vice president Kamala Harris as a way of keeping at least part of the ticket consistent. However, there are reports that power brokers in the Democratic Party are overlooking Harris as a possibility for the Oval Office despite four years being one heartbeat away. A couple of other names have been mentioned but from what I understand none of the reported potential Biden replacements are well known enough nor have enough money to fully fund a race against the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago at this point in the game. Most of them or else are saying publicly that they're standing behind Biden for now.

In addition, a recent poll finds that, of the people thrown about to supposedly replace Biden such as Michigan Governor Whitmer and California governor Newsome to name two examples, only his running mate vice president Kamala Harris seems the poll better than the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago.

While I have some issues with Kamala Harris I realized that choosing her to step up if Joe Biden decided to drop out of the race might not be as problematic having somebody completely knew the race step out and run for the highest office in the land either starting at the convention itself or just before the convention would.

WHAT HAPPENED THE LAST TIME EITHER A PRESIDENTIAL OR VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE DROPPED OUT OF THE RACE?

With the talk about weather Joe Biden should drop out or of a brokered convention for the Democrats One needs to remember that it was kind of done before.

In 1972 the Democrats appointed Tom Eagleton to be George McGovern's running mate for the presidency. A short time later it was revealed that Eagleton had previously receiving electric shock therapy for depression at Barnes Hospital in St Louis. The news from that caused Eagleton to be dropped from the vice presidency consideration to be replaced by Sergeant Shriver. Thought the circumstances weren't exactly like they are now they were similar enough to have a similar reaction in the mind of public. In the November 1972 presidential election the government was trounced by Nixon in landslide, winning 49 of the 50 states.

In hindsight, Nixon's victory would be a short lived as Fallout from the growing Watergate investigations would lead to a number of convictions amongst his staff and several key resignations, including vice president Spiro Agnew in 1973. Nixon himself, facing an overwhelming possibility of impeachment as well as possible criminal charges in regards to his possible role in Watergate, would resign in early August 1974 leading to your presidency of Gerald R Ford and vice president Nelson Rockefeller (the only time in American history when both the President and Vice President were neither elected but appointed by Congress). With the current Supreme Court giving former electoral vote winner Donny immunity for "official acts" (though leaving the door open as to what counts as an official or an unofficial act) it's extremely unlikely that if Donny gets a second term he would face that level of accountability with his own party being willing to support everything he does and an opposition party you might be facing prosecution for political reasons under project 2025 and the power it would give him.

AS THINGS ARE NOW.

As I finish this piece Biden has said that he's in it for the long haul. While several key Democratic allies are siding with them for now there's still the incentive beating the media that Biden is too old and may not have what it takes to Donny this November. There may be a possibility this is true but it overlooks that Biden has advisors and a team to help him through this. It also seems to forget that this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if they keep banging on the drum saying that Biden needs to go and that the Democrats will automatically lose in November otherwise.

Yes, Joe Biden will be 86 years old at the end of the second term if re-elected. There are no guarantees that he will survive another term. But there are no guarantees that any present will survive one term in office, much less two. Even if a leader is in perfect health there is always the risk of assassination while in office or even death by something unforeseen like a plane crash. A food line of continuity is supposedly what having a good vice president is for (at least if one believes Dubya's former Vice President Dick Cheney. Others have different on that). That should also be considered when it comes to the issue of whether Biden can hack out a second term or not

In other words, it doesn't have to be this way. If the Coupublicans could make Donny electable in 2016 despite his playing footsie with white supremacists on social media in the hot mic Access Hollywood moment where he discussed grabbing women "by the pussy" apparently without consent, little if any reason why the Democrats can't make Joe Biden electable this year

SHOULD BIDEN DROP OUT?

As I said earlier I'm still not certain whether Biden should stay in the presidential race or not. However. The best made by Biden and his family, not by Consultants are pundits who may be hedging their best regardless of the election results. I also concur with comedian John Fugelsang the decision should be made until after former electoral the winner Donny names his VP candidate.

Should Biden and company have prepared for this possibility? Yes. Does running around acting like all is lost if Biden stays in do anything constructive? Not really. Whatever happens - it's important to note that project 2025 and the current GOP platform (which, according to some, seems to embrace a lot of Project 2025 in it) is far more pressing and far more of a threat than weather the top of the Democratic ticket is Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, or somebody else.

I don't know who's going to win in November. Neither do you right now. What is important and necessary is to let people know how horrible project 2025 is and it's important that the party and leader it would give power to, while stripping rights away from the rest of us, needs not just merely to be defeated but has to go down in flames like the Hindenburg.

Right now that's what needs to be done regardless of who gets the Democratic nomination. Now let's take a deep breath, remember that, and get the word out.

A COUPLE DAYS UNTIL THE 2022 MIDTERM ELECTIONS - A THOUGHT OR TWO REGARDING DESPAIR

 With the midterm election just a couple days away I think we'll take this post in a slightly different direction and talk about despair for a moment.

If one is paying attention to the polls it would appear that people are more than willing to sacrifice their rights and personal freedoms under the illusions that letting the GOP retake Congress would improve the economy. Some of the mainstream poles have even suggested that women have calmed down since the dogs ruling from SCOTUS in late June and are more concerned about gas prices and the cost of groceries they are trying to protect bodily autonomy or the right to make decisions what to do with pregnancy.  As a result, a lot of people who lean democratic are freaking out and assuming the election news is all bleak. It's important to realize that the midterms are still not set in stone until every vote is counted but that does little to assuage people who are doom scrolling and in a constant state of worry after witnessing the last six or so years.

Should people despair just yet? I would suggest being cautious but don't assume that it's hopeless just yet. Having said that, I want to briefly look out why people might despair at a time like this.

Imagine you're a person that leans liberal living in a conservative state. Be it because of family emergency, job transfer, or simply can't afford to move. In that scenario it's likely that a person might be in a situation surrounded by people with opposing points of view. If we were still in normal times that might be fine. However, given that a good chunk of the Coupublicans are trying to downplay the coup attempt that happened on January 6th 2021 and many of those are still claiming the stolen from the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago, we are currently in a time where that becomes a lot more stressful. If someone ne lives in a city in said state it may seem a little less bleak because it's a little bit easier to find like-minded people. But what about those people who may be in rural areas or  in the outer suburbs/exhurbs?

For people who have to exist in those areas the despair might be a little more existential. We're talking about areas where bring me up the actual history of this country, especially when it comes to race, is seen seen and attacked us being divisive. The sort of areas where there's a tendency to downplay the events of January 6, 2021 rather than address what really went on and is going on today to some degree. The places where where someone who might not be MAGA risks being silenced parlance by those around them who have drank that particular non-carbonated drink mix. It is in situations like that, where someone who might lean left could feel increasingly isolated - especially in the aftermath of how most people in those areas reacted to the pandemic- and feel they have to suffer in silence or pretend that nothing is wrong while many of the people around them spout out rhetoric that can be easily disproved and seems to have more and more anti-democratic leanings. It is a not scenario where I can see it being easy to fall into despair.

It would be easy to say that these people need just to find organizations are interested in and and volunteer for them (and I'm not necessarily talking about working with the local chapter of the Democrats). This is good advice good advice, but it's easier to follow if you're in a city or even an inner-ring suburb then for people living in rural areas who might have to drive a relatively significant distance to find these organizations. Add to this the fact that even in the age of the internet it's not always easy to find organizations that will think global and act local.

So how should these people react in the face of current poll numbers lovers and the possible fear created by "poll watchers" that are more likely to act on misinformation than actual facts? Should they be scared?

It's okay to be scared, or even feel overwhelmed. However you have to put that in the back of your mind and cash your vote anyway.  As I said before, vpting isn't only thing we need to do to help make this a better place. In fact it's the bare minimum in what we can do. For some people though it might be the only thing they're able to do at the moment because of work schedules, family commitments and the like.

So outside of voting how should we deal with the feelings of despair and being overwhelmed over the next couple days? Breathe and take the polls with a container of salt. Remember that while they might be right (it would be dishonest not to consider that) they have also been wrong in the past and might be wrong this year. If you have friends they're on the fence but might lean against the GOP who haven't voted yet talk with them and let them know what's at stake. If it all just boils down to perceptions on the economy let them know that there is no free enterprise under an authoritarian state.

Well something like this take care of all of the pre-election despair right now? Not all of it, but regardless of what happens the fight will continue. It just might get a hell of a lot more dire and bleak if the group of election deniers and conspiracy theorists controlling much of the GOP manages to win. 

ONE WEEK, OKAY SIX DAYS ACTUALLY BUT YOU GET THE IDEA, UNTIL THE 2022 MIDTERMS

 Hey!  I was hoping to get this post done and online yesterday. However, oversleeping and recovering form finishing up another project had me needing a break.  With that in mind, let’s get to another post regarding the midterms next week. 

This time around I want to focus on how people should take into account when looking at polls, the news, et al.  I admit this likely only touches the surface but I hope this helps some people who may be freaking out right now.  As the mainstream media reports poll gaps closing and how things are razor thin in some key states, it’s easy to worry and think that all is lost.  However, since it’s not always that simple, I feel it could help to offer a few tips on how to react to the hell-ride that the midterms are being presented as.

First of all – BREATHE.  I cannot stress this enough.  Being close to hyperventilating and freaking out is perfectly understandable. However, it can also be the worst thing you can do.  Take a deep breath and take a step back.  Assess things quickly. The polls don’t always tell the whole story (we’ll get to that shortly) and constantly checking the news when they’re recycling the same talking points might actually be meant to keep you afraid and thinking your vote (if you haven’t voted already) doesn’t matter so why bother.  Instead, take a breath, think for a moment or two and figure out the next step to take.

Next – KEEP THE DOOM SCROLLING TO A MINIMUM. It’s easy to keep your eyes glued to the news like the election is a horserace in your free time and freak out. The mainstream media, whether they want to admit it or not, gives the right wing a wide berth and is more than willing to take their messaging and run with it.  But, as I said earlier, it isn’t the whole story.  Polls have been wrong in the past (remember when the majority of then predicted that Hillary Clinton would easily win the 2016 Presidential election) and as the 2020 election shows, we might not have the whole picture even as November 8^th turns to November 9^th and beyond. 

As a friend of mine in Los Angeles pointed out on social media – if you already voted doom scrolling is worthless. Instead focus on getting people out to the polls who haven’t voted yet and encourage others to do the same.  If you haven’t voted yet, make a plan and make sure you’re able to cast your ballot.  Focusing on the prize rather than the potential and possible obstacles to the prize can possibly do more good than doom scrolling and freaking out.

With this in mind let’s get to the next point: THE POLLS DON’T TELL THE WHOLE STORY:.  This should be obvious to anyone who remembers 2016 where the man we’d later come to know as the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago had a less than 20% approval rating on election day yet somehow won the electoral vote and defeated Hillary Clinton.  In some cases this is because polls and surveys often rely on landlines (or at least used to) and don’t generally talk to people with cell phones (this may have changed given the decrease in people with land lines).  In other cases it’s because people generally try to avoid taking those surveys which leaves to room wide open for what I’m about to say.

SOMETIMES PEOPLE FLAT OUT LIE WHEN TAKING A SURVEY. Some have suggested it’s because those people who supported the Mad Fuhrer, either in 2016, 2020, or now, voters might not want their neighbors to know who they’re voting for. That;’s a possibility though one I doubt given how the MAGA crowd likes to shout from the rooftops.  Instead I want to throw this out there – they may be lying on purpose. 

Think about it. You suddenly see Democrats who, while remembering how the GOP was like under the Mad Fuhrer, who suddenly lean towards the GOP because of the economy and are willing to let their rights go away in the process. Sure it’s entirely possible there may be some low information voters like that (i.e.: those who vote a party line because their parents did et al).  But, even with that, there’s still a lot of anger over SCOTUS overturning Roe alone as well as the possible threats to a number of other rights and the coup attempt of January 6, 2021 that makes this more of an outlier than a solid movement.

Instead I think it may be likely that a lot of people who were going to vote for the GOP anyway may lie to pollsters and claim to be Democrats for the purposes of political dirty tricks. Not everyone may have done this (and yes, there’s a chance that those on the other side might do this as well) but there are some people on the right who follow bad faith actors be they pundits, politicians, and the like and have learned that keeping your side in power is the only thing and that any step they take is justified in the process. 

As a result this line of thinking could lead to people lying to pollsters in order to keep the other side scared and thinking that all is hopeless.  So, take this into account whenever you see the poll results – espeacilly as razor thin as most of them have been recently.

In addition, THINK SEVERAL STEPS AHEAD.  As I said in a previous post I don’t know how the election next week is going to go and neither do you.  Therefore it’s important to remember that voting alone doesn’t end this battle.  The fight will continue regardless of who wins next week.  If the GOP wins the fight will be steeper and a lot more bleak (yes it’s true that the GOP is becoming more and more fascist adjacent and a lot of people will be on the chopping block if they regain control of Congress).  However, don’t think that is the right wing loses that they’ll try and understand where their neighbors, friends, and family members who lean left are coming from and try to reach common ground.  In the past the right wing has gotten more extreme regardless of their outcome  - add extremist conspiracy theory garbage from groups we won’t name here to the mix and the fight will continue regardless. 

Ultimately though there’s one thing to mention – if you haven’t done so already VOTE. 

Right now it’s easy to look at the polls and think that all hope is lost. It’s even possible to fall into despair and think that, since they paint the election as already done, then there’s no point in voting.  This is understandable but one should remember that if you don’t vote then the other side wins. 

I know there’s no guarantee that one’s side will win the election, especially when factoring in the voter suppression laws that the GOP has pushed for since 2020. However assuming that all is lost means that you will almost definitely lose.  The only thing that matters now is for as many people to vote as possible and overpower the GOP’s plans.  It will be a little more difficult now than two years ago but it needs to be done.

As a friend of mine shared on social media – if you’ve already voted early limit the doom scrolling and get your friends and family members out to vote.  If you haven’t voted yet make a plan to do so  and make sure your ballot is cast.  As I said earlier in this post we might not know the results on election night but, regardless of what happens, the fight will continue. 

Just remember that, if you care about reproductive freedom LGBTQ rights and want voting to be more accessible (not harder) the side that’s not trying to marginalize people and try and make certain rights illegal on a Federal level will make the fight easier than if the Coupublicans win. 

Keep that in mind when you vote and vote your conscience.

TWO WEEKS TIL THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS - SOME THOUGHTS

Tuesday October 25, 2022....

As I type this we are two weeks away from the 2022 midterm elections here in the United States. As it stands now things still seem to be up in the air where what was at first thought to be a victory for the Coupublican's to win back at least one of the houses of Congress got put in Jeopardy after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade over the summer but I might have a chance of getting back to that again.

As pundits and political scientists have their predictions of what might happen in 2 weeks I have to admit that I'm not sure who's going to win the election. If you're being honest neither do you.

Part of the current feeling that the Coupublicans could win at least one of the houses of Congress lies traditional political reasons dumb that the incumbent party in the White House always loses at least one of the houses of Congress in the midterm election. They're also citing recent polls that claimed that the economy is the most pressing issue for American voters Ball by crime abortion being third or fourth depending on who you ask. Establishing pundits are using this as proof of it being a horse race while some people in the GOP kind of hoping that it depresses enough potential Democratic voters that they stay home on Election Day, that's making their Victory a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The problem with this line of thinking, especially when it comes to the polls, is that the recent polls are almost all within the margin of error (except for one that predicted a win or lose margin of 11 seats, making it an outlier). Because of the margins of error, and the fact that these polls rely on likely voters, I find myself in agreement with journalist and YouTuber Beau of the Fifth Column when he says the outcome of the midterms just depends how many unlikely voters did they need to go out and vote when they normally wouldn't. With this in mind it really does go down to motivate more of the unlikely voters to the boat and what issues they'll vote on.

This could mean the news for the Democrats given their positions and  policies tend to be more popular with everyday people then the GOP policies are.  However, there tends to be a belief among a lot of people (fueled In part by the corporate media narrative) that the coupublicans would be better for the economy. While looking at the actual data makes this a little far-fetched the belief persists.

This leads us to a dark horse theory amongst the current political wisdom. Michael Moore stated and continues to predict the Democrats will keep control of both houses of Congress come the midterms, fighting the number of women angry over losing their reproductive rights as well as increasing number of young people finally able to vote in their first election.  While some people in the mainstream media are calling Moore's statements wishful thinking it should be noted that Moore was one of the few people in 2016 to protect that Hillary Clinton would lose the election. He didn't want it to happen (and even did a special presentation to try and get out the vote for the Democrats) but he, unfortunately.  turned out to be right. Yes there is no guarantee that he'll be correct this time. Still, Michael Moore does tend to have more of a sense of what the average person wants or is seeking out then a lot of mainstream political pundits.

What do I think about that? I'm not certain. I do believe that a lot of people who can get pregnant are pissed off about losing the right to control their own bodies and make health decisions for themselves. However, I also know that too many people in suburbia (especially white moderates) might not like the Coupublicans stances on social conservatism and culture war issues but may be perfectly willing to give up their own rights and freedoms under the belief that the GOP will lower taxes and that culture war issues will never affect them. Some of these people may still be on the fence but may have a hard time being convinced that it can affect them as election day nears

The reality of the midterm elections is simple. The winner will be whichever side gets more people to vote. While the GOP normally goes out to vote in every election (and has some on their side willing to try and prevent others from voting via voter suppression laws and the light to prevent turn out) there is one factor where are the Coupublicans may have overestimated. Mainly their attacks on women, minorities,  and LGBTQ people and issues may piss off a lot of people to the point where they'll be willing to vote in a midterm they normally wouldn't. 

 It is here where I feel a little bit of hope. Even with that though, it's still up to people to get out there and vote. 

 While voting isn't the only way to achieve social change in this country it is one of the simplest and the one that most of us are expected to do (yet yet some of the people and parties in power want to actually make that more difficult). If those who are able to vote who disagree with current political wisdom are willing to brave the lines at the polls and make their voices heard with their vote, people who want a better world it have a step towards getting there. 

MIDTERM ELECTION THOUGHTS 23 DAYS OUT

 Sunday October 16, 2022.

We are roughly a little over three weeks from the 2022 midterm elections here in the United States. Things are up in the air as what many thought should have been an easy victory for the GOP was thrown asunder in June when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, removing bodily autonomy from those who can get pregnant; making a little over half the u.s. population second-class citizens in the process.  While this has managed to energize Democrats giving them something they can appeal to independents and more moderate voters over it has left common political wisdom up in the air.

As for the Coupublicans, candidates highly endorsed by the Mad Fuhrer (Now Currently in Exile @) Mar-A-Lago seem to be edging further and further towards enabling fascism. A majority of GOP voters polled refused to accept that the Mad Fuhrer lost the election in 2020, claiming that voting machines and "illegal voters" stole the election from the former electoral vote winner. Conservative politicians are increasingly relying on culture war issues that target LGBTQ people as well as racial minorities as a way to keep their base angry rather than work with Democrats to try and improve the lives of their constituents.  Add to the sense that the more extreme of the GOP politicians would rather settle scores for their dear leader the work on the issues that affect our lives and you get a feeling that, if they win in November, this country could go down a dark and dire path.

In the meantime, the right-wing media as well as politicians gaslight the rest of us. They claim the overturn of Roe isn't that big of a deal even though we're already seeing scenarios a scary and deadly as those feminists warned us would happen if abortion  is outlawed while they claim that those who can't get pregnant can merely travel to a state where the procedure is legal they don't take into account the costs that could prohibit many from doing so. They also refuse to acknowledged they fully plan on trying to introduce a federal abortion ban if they get a chance. Add to this some pharmacist are refusing to sell people contraception and we're beginning to see a certain segment of one religion being imposed on us more and more.

As for the Supreme Court it appears they may be taking all the keys that could probably allow states to control how elections are conducted. While it seems harmless enough on the surface, States with GOP Governors and/or legislators are increasingly willing to consider not accepting election results don't fit the outcome they want. When mixed with voter suppression efforts and possible intimidation at the polls in November and we have a very scary mix that could bring the game against the will of the people.

And it's not just abortion rights either. Coupublicans have hinted that they want SCOTUS to overtun the ruling that legalized same sex marriage, with some politicians even calling for allowing states to imprison people for sodomy.  In addition, there are signs that the right wing wants to strip away the right os people to use contraception as well.  While Coupublican politicians and right wing pundits gaslight us by saying this can't happen, what we've seen coming from states that have re-criminalized the right of pregnant people to get an abortion where women almost have to practically die to get abortions needed to save a woman's life because doctors and hospitals don't know how to respond in a time where the hard right caught the car and allowed laws based on horrible theory to get passed a lot of us know to expect if the Coupublicans regain control of Congress.

As for the candidates themselves, some of the key races are really too close to call. This is true even if some of the candidates endorsed by the Mad Fuhrer seem to be embracing white supremacy, making christianity the national religion in spite of the First Amendment saying they can't, or just seem to be plain incompetent. Whether this is due to polarization, the fact most people don't how time to study politics deeply, or just blind faith it's hard to tell at this point (though it's likely a mixture of the three). Either way we're at a scary time right now.

It's easy at this point, especially if you live in a red state, to fall into despair and throw up your hands thinking you can't make a difference. However, well there's no guarantee what will happen at the polls in a few weeks, just giving up and letting them steamroll over your civil liberties is a guarantee that you can't make a difference.

A few people I know feel that SCOTUS overturning Roe was lighting a tinderbox, that into angered enough women to get out and vote out the GOP in a landslide this fall. While I want to believe this is correct I'm not so certain. I worried that some people who may not be extremely right wing on social issues they still vote for the GOP out of fear of rising taxes. In addition there are still a number women who would gladly vote against their own interests in the they'll never need what they're voting against ( thinking they'll never need an abortion for example or or if they did that there's will be the exception but other people who need it should be punished for it). Add to it the fact that a lot of people are kept too busy with their employment to study the issues and things really could go either way.

So what to do now? First up we all have to vote. While it's far from the only thing that can be done right now the first necessary step is for those of us that oppose the Coupublican agenda in all its forms the show up and overpower the right-wing assholes at the voting booth. The Coupublicans are going to do their damnedest to suppress the vote and tried to stay in power by any means necessary (note how the supposed "pro life" boaters suddenly don't care about GA Senate candidate Herschel Walker supposedly paying for several abortions despite wanting it completely outlawed as an example). Yes sometimes you're voting for least shitty of the bunch but on one side wants to get away with a coup or force an extremely narrow definition of christianity down our throats (like too many Coupublicans seem to want to) then we might have to suck it up and make sure the right wing loses.

In addition, we're going to have to take to the streets and make our voices heard to the best of our legal ability. The Republicans are not going to give up they're sick plan for a one-party system (Karl Rove had a vision for the GOP to be a permanent supermajority during the Dubya years and the party seems hell-bent on making that so) and seems willing to stop at nothing to get it. This has to be countered and fought every step of the way politically. It means calling both sides on the carpet when needed but knowing where the true danger really is right now.  This is far from a complete look at what's at stake but it's a relatively good capsulisation of how things stand and what needs to be done.

So who do I think is going to win in November? I don't know ( and I have little hope doubt the good white Christian folks in the red state Heartland are going to do the right thing on jack shit). However, I want to be proven wrong and I really do hope that the people predicting that the GOP will go down in flames politically like the Hindenburg are right.

Whether that happens or not is up to me and you, so vote.