ONE WEEK, OKAY SIX DAYS ACTUALLY BUT YOU GET THE IDEA, UNTIL THE 2022 MIDTERMS

 Hey!  I was hoping to get this post done and online yesterday. However, oversleeping and recovering form finishing up another project had me needing a break.  With that in mind, let’s get to another post regarding the midterms next week. 

This time around I want to focus on how people should take into account when looking at polls, the news, et al.  I admit this likely only touches the surface but I hope this helps some people who may be freaking out right now.  As the mainstream media reports poll gaps closing and how things are razor thin in some key states, it’s easy to worry and think that all is lost.  However, since it’s not always that simple, I feel it could help to offer a few tips on how to react to the hell-ride that the midterms are being presented as.

First of all – BREATHE.  I cannot stress this enough.  Being close to hyperventilating and freaking out is perfectly understandable. However, it can also be the worst thing you can do.  Take a deep breath and take a step back.  Assess things quickly. The polls don’t always tell the whole story (we’ll get to that shortly) and constantly checking the news when they’re recycling the same talking points might actually be meant to keep you afraid and thinking your vote (if you haven’t voted already) doesn’t matter so why bother.  Instead, take a breath, think for a moment or two and figure out the next step to take.

Next – KEEP THE DOOM SCROLLING TO A MINIMUM. It’s easy to keep your eyes glued to the news like the election is a horserace in your free time and freak out. The mainstream media, whether they want to admit it or not, gives the right wing a wide berth and is more than willing to take their messaging and run with it.  But, as I said earlier, it isn’t the whole story.  Polls have been wrong in the past (remember when the majority of then predicted that Hillary Clinton would easily win the 2016 Presidential election) and as the 2020 election shows, we might not have the whole picture even as November 8^th turns to November 9^th and beyond. 

As a friend of mine in Los Angeles pointed out on social media – if you already voted doom scrolling is worthless. Instead focus on getting people out to the polls who haven’t voted yet and encourage others to do the same.  If you haven’t voted yet, make a plan and make sure you’re able to cast your ballot.  Focusing on the prize rather than the potential and possible obstacles to the prize can possibly do more good than doom scrolling and freaking out.

With this in mind let’s get to the next point: THE POLLS DON’T TELL THE WHOLE STORY:.  This should be obvious to anyone who remembers 2016 where the man we’d later come to know as the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago had a less than 20% approval rating on election day yet somehow won the electoral vote and defeated Hillary Clinton.  In some cases this is because polls and surveys often rely on landlines (or at least used to) and don’t generally talk to people with cell phones (this may have changed given the decrease in people with land lines).  In other cases it’s because people generally try to avoid taking those surveys which leaves to room wide open for what I’m about to say.

SOMETIMES PEOPLE FLAT OUT LIE WHEN TAKING A SURVEY. Some have suggested it’s because those people who supported the Mad Fuhrer, either in 2016, 2020, or now, voters might not want their neighbors to know who they’re voting for. That;’s a possibility though one I doubt given how the MAGA crowd likes to shout from the rooftops.  Instead I want to throw this out there – they may be lying on purpose. 

Think about it. You suddenly see Democrats who, while remembering how the GOP was like under the Mad Fuhrer, who suddenly lean towards the GOP because of the economy and are willing to let their rights go away in the process. Sure it’s entirely possible there may be some low information voters like that (i.e.: those who vote a party line because their parents did et al).  But, even with that, there’s still a lot of anger over SCOTUS overturning Roe alone as well as the possible threats to a number of other rights and the coup attempt of January 6, 2021 that makes this more of an outlier than a solid movement.

Instead I think it may be likely that a lot of people who were going to vote for the GOP anyway may lie to pollsters and claim to be Democrats for the purposes of political dirty tricks. Not everyone may have done this (and yes, there’s a chance that those on the other side might do this as well) but there are some people on the right who follow bad faith actors be they pundits, politicians, and the like and have learned that keeping your side in power is the only thing and that any step they take is justified in the process. 

As a result this line of thinking could lead to people lying to pollsters in order to keep the other side scared and thinking that all is hopeless.  So, take this into account whenever you see the poll results – espeacilly as razor thin as most of them have been recently.

In addition, THINK SEVERAL STEPS AHEAD.  As I said in a previous post I don’t know how the election next week is going to go and neither do you.  Therefore it’s important to remember that voting alone doesn’t end this battle.  The fight will continue regardless of who wins next week.  If the GOP wins the fight will be steeper and a lot more bleak (yes it’s true that the GOP is becoming more and more fascist adjacent and a lot of people will be on the chopping block if they regain control of Congress).  However, don’t think that is the right wing loses that they’ll try and understand where their neighbors, friends, and family members who lean left are coming from and try to reach common ground.  In the past the right wing has gotten more extreme regardless of their outcome  - add extremist conspiracy theory garbage from groups we won’t name here to the mix and the fight will continue regardless. 

Ultimately though there’s one thing to mention – if you haven’t done so already VOTE. 

Right now it’s easy to look at the polls and think that all hope is lost. It’s even possible to fall into despair and think that, since they paint the election as already done, then there’s no point in voting.  This is understandable but one should remember that if you don’t vote then the other side wins. 

I know there’s no guarantee that one’s side will win the election, especially when factoring in the voter suppression laws that the GOP has pushed for since 2020. However assuming that all is lost means that you will almost definitely lose.  The only thing that matters now is for as many people to vote as possible and overpower the GOP’s plans.  It will be a little more difficult now than two years ago but it needs to be done.

As a friend of mine shared on social media – if you’ve already voted early limit the doom scrolling and get your friends and family members out to vote.  If you haven’t voted yet make a plan to do so  and make sure your ballot is cast.  As I said earlier in this post we might not know the results on election night but, regardless of what happens, the fight will continue. 

Just remember that, if you care about reproductive freedom LGBTQ rights and want voting to be more accessible (not harder) the side that’s not trying to marginalize people and try and make certain rights illegal on a Federal level will make the fight easier than if the Coupublicans win. 

Keep that in mind when you vote and vote your conscience.

THE DEATH OF RBG, RIGHTS IN THE CROSSHAIRS, AND A FEW THOUGHTS ON THER STRUGGLE AHEAD

 Last night I came home from a rough night at the paying job and, after cleaning up, looked on a certain social media site that doesn't need my help for publicity to learn about the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg from pancreatic cancer at the age of 87. While we all knew she was struggling healthwise (that form of cancer is notorious for killing most of the people diagnosed with it) it still came as a shock for multiple reasons from timing (just a little over  a month before the 2020 Presidential election) to what's on the line (the new appointee from the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago could, if approved push back nearly 100 years of progress for women and various marginalized peoples as well as on various environmental and other issues).  In fact Ginsburg herself had reportedly stated to her granddaughter a few days before her death that she didn't want her replacement chosen under the current President.  The fact she apparently had to say that even on her last day is saddening enough but what';s at stake ranging form the reprodutvie rights of those people who can get pregnant to LGBTQIA rights. We also know that the new choice, if forced through,k could give the Mad Fuhrer license to turn this country full on to a authoritarian extreme right wing state more in line with apartheid era South Africa or Brazil under Bulsonaro than even what this country was like 20 years ago.

Now most of us know what's at stake here so I'll leave other people who have more details to share of that tell them. However, before I suggest or support any next steps I feel I have ot discuss a few things briefly. Yes, I'm aware that I'm not alone in saying these things but they need to be said.
First, Ruth Bader Ginsburg should have never been positioned as the one person who's passing could endanger the rights of millions of people. That it ended up that way due to several stolen elections (2000 and 2016) as well as an increasing lust for power from the Repubs (to the point where when Barack Obama nominated Merrick Garland in 2016 Repubs denied Garland a hearing claiming it was against the rules for the President to nominate someone in an election year (though Addison the Turtle relishes the though of pushing through a justice for his side now). A system is broken when too much power is in the hands of too few people. And anyone who has actually laid attention can attest to - the system has been broken for a long long time.

In addition, Obama's mistake in not, when the Repubs refused to give Garland a hearing, putting Garland in as a recess appointment was a misfire. Granted conventional wisdom thought that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election and this wouldn't be an issue. However, we got electoral vote winner Donny which lead to SCOTUS justices like Neil Gorsuch and Bretty Brett Kavanaugh. Garland's nomination itself was an attempt to triangulate with a candidate both Dems and Repubs said was worthy to be a justice. However, when Obama tried this he learned yet again that even when he tried to satisfy the Repubs theGOP moved the goalposts and continued their quest to do everything possible to make sure he got as little as possible done (and why suggestions that if Biden wins the Repubs will suddenly come to their senses and work with them is naive at best).

Meanwhile both Senate Majority Leader Addison the Turtle and the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago seem hell-bent on pushing through a candidate with a little over a moth before the election and, if electoral vote winner Donny loses (and more importantly, if the asshiole concedes in the aftermath) a lame duck session. While some have suggested that there are a few Repubs that might not vote for a new justice in these circumstances we have to remember that Repubs in government often voice mild concerns but tend to vote in goosestep with the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago so we should be skeptical of this.
So what should be done. In the bigger picture - VOTE!!!! Yeah, I know it's not a great choice and there's enough misinformation designed to try and keep people home and away from the polls (or mailing in their vote, depending on location et al) but it's a step that has to be taken. While I won't outright tell you whom to vote for I do agree with Beau of the Fifth Column that Biden represents breathing room in the path of trying to change the way things are now. Yes, we'll have to protest him as well but the breathing room is necessary after the overwhelming shit sandwich that the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago has made the last four years.

Also, I know some people are going in for vote shaming and I understand that. However, it might not be the best way to get potential allies to your side on an electoral basis down the road. In addition I've heard anecdote that some people on the far left are nto voting or claiming that four more years of Donny will disgust people enough to choose a truly progressive candidate. However, Donny's had one term and the DNC still found a way to make the majority in its ranks vote for Biden (even if some will do so than throw up as soon as they find a nearby trash can) - so that isn't an accurate path either.

It's going to take the diversity of tactics or, to paraphrase Jello Biafra, rebellion both in the voting booth and on the streets. Yes, voting is an important step but, unlike what those in power tell you, it's not the only thing that can be done. People are going to have to do everything from contacting their elected officials to voice that a new justice appointment shouldn't happen until after the election to even taking up the First Amendment right to protest (i.e.: what is meant by people have to petition their government for a redress of grievances). Yes, this means Repubs but also pressuring the Democratic party establishment who seems more interested in making money than in creating solid substantial policy (the latter of which ould offend wealthy donors).  

As I said earlier these are merely a few brief thoughts, many in line with what other people are saying but is my take on them. While people may be in mourning last night and today the fight got a lot more real and has to be taken up tomorrow. We have less than 45 days until election day and shit got a lot more scary - and a lot more real.