ONE WEEK, OKAY SIX DAYS ACTUALLY BUT YOU GET THE IDEA, UNTIL THE 2022 MIDTERMS

 Hey!  I was hoping to get this post done and online yesterday. However, oversleeping and recovering form finishing up another project had me needing a break.  With that in mind, let’s get to another post regarding the midterms next week. 

This time around I want to focus on how people should take into account when looking at polls, the news, et al.  I admit this likely only touches the surface but I hope this helps some people who may be freaking out right now.  As the mainstream media reports poll gaps closing and how things are razor thin in some key states, it’s easy to worry and think that all is lost.  However, since it’s not always that simple, I feel it could help to offer a few tips on how to react to the hell-ride that the midterms are being presented as.

First of all – BREATHE.  I cannot stress this enough.  Being close to hyperventilating and freaking out is perfectly understandable. However, it can also be the worst thing you can do.  Take a deep breath and take a step back.  Assess things quickly. The polls don’t always tell the whole story (we’ll get to that shortly) and constantly checking the news when they’re recycling the same talking points might actually be meant to keep you afraid and thinking your vote (if you haven’t voted already) doesn’t matter so why bother.  Instead, take a breath, think for a moment or two and figure out the next step to take.

Next – KEEP THE DOOM SCROLLING TO A MINIMUM. It’s easy to keep your eyes glued to the news like the election is a horserace in your free time and freak out. The mainstream media, whether they want to admit it or not, gives the right wing a wide berth and is more than willing to take their messaging and run with it.  But, as I said earlier, it isn’t the whole story.  Polls have been wrong in the past (remember when the majority of then predicted that Hillary Clinton would easily win the 2016 Presidential election) and as the 2020 election shows, we might not have the whole picture even as November 8^th turns to November 9^th and beyond. 

As a friend of mine in Los Angeles pointed out on social media – if you already voted doom scrolling is worthless. Instead focus on getting people out to the polls who haven’t voted yet and encourage others to do the same.  If you haven’t voted yet, make a plan and make sure you’re able to cast your ballot.  Focusing on the prize rather than the potential and possible obstacles to the prize can possibly do more good than doom scrolling and freaking out.

With this in mind let’s get to the next point: THE POLLS DON’T TELL THE WHOLE STORY:.  This should be obvious to anyone who remembers 2016 where the man we’d later come to know as the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago had a less than 20% approval rating on election day yet somehow won the electoral vote and defeated Hillary Clinton.  In some cases this is because polls and surveys often rely on landlines (or at least used to) and don’t generally talk to people with cell phones (this may have changed given the decrease in people with land lines).  In other cases it’s because people generally try to avoid taking those surveys which leaves to room wide open for what I’m about to say.

SOMETIMES PEOPLE FLAT OUT LIE WHEN TAKING A SURVEY. Some have suggested it’s because those people who supported the Mad Fuhrer, either in 2016, 2020, or now, voters might not want their neighbors to know who they’re voting for. That;’s a possibility though one I doubt given how the MAGA crowd likes to shout from the rooftops.  Instead I want to throw this out there – they may be lying on purpose. 

Think about it. You suddenly see Democrats who, while remembering how the GOP was like under the Mad Fuhrer, who suddenly lean towards the GOP because of the economy and are willing to let their rights go away in the process. Sure it’s entirely possible there may be some low information voters like that (i.e.: those who vote a party line because their parents did et al).  But, even with that, there’s still a lot of anger over SCOTUS overturning Roe alone as well as the possible threats to a number of other rights and the coup attempt of January 6, 2021 that makes this more of an outlier than a solid movement.

Instead I think it may be likely that a lot of people who were going to vote for the GOP anyway may lie to pollsters and claim to be Democrats for the purposes of political dirty tricks. Not everyone may have done this (and yes, there’s a chance that those on the other side might do this as well) but there are some people on the right who follow bad faith actors be they pundits, politicians, and the like and have learned that keeping your side in power is the only thing and that any step they take is justified in the process. 

As a result this line of thinking could lead to people lying to pollsters in order to keep the other side scared and thinking that all is hopeless.  So, take this into account whenever you see the poll results – espeacilly as razor thin as most of them have been recently.

In addition, THINK SEVERAL STEPS AHEAD.  As I said in a previous post I don’t know how the election next week is going to go and neither do you.  Therefore it’s important to remember that voting alone doesn’t end this battle.  The fight will continue regardless of who wins next week.  If the GOP wins the fight will be steeper and a lot more bleak (yes it’s true that the GOP is becoming more and more fascist adjacent and a lot of people will be on the chopping block if they regain control of Congress).  However, don’t think that is the right wing loses that they’ll try and understand where their neighbors, friends, and family members who lean left are coming from and try to reach common ground.  In the past the right wing has gotten more extreme regardless of their outcome  - add extremist conspiracy theory garbage from groups we won’t name here to the mix and the fight will continue regardless. 

Ultimately though there’s one thing to mention – if you haven’t done so already VOTE. 

Right now it’s easy to look at the polls and think that all hope is lost. It’s even possible to fall into despair and think that, since they paint the election as already done, then there’s no point in voting.  This is understandable but one should remember that if you don’t vote then the other side wins. 

I know there’s no guarantee that one’s side will win the election, especially when factoring in the voter suppression laws that the GOP has pushed for since 2020. However assuming that all is lost means that you will almost definitely lose.  The only thing that matters now is for as many people to vote as possible and overpower the GOP’s plans.  It will be a little more difficult now than two years ago but it needs to be done.

As a friend of mine shared on social media – if you’ve already voted early limit the doom scrolling and get your friends and family members out to vote.  If you haven’t voted yet make a plan to do so  and make sure your ballot is cast.  As I said earlier in this post we might not know the results on election night but, regardless of what happens, the fight will continue. 

Just remember that, if you care about reproductive freedom LGBTQ rights and want voting to be more accessible (not harder) the side that’s not trying to marginalize people and try and make certain rights illegal on a Federal level will make the fight easier than if the Coupublicans win. 

Keep that in mind when you vote and vote your conscience.

MIDTERM ELECTION THOUGHTS 23 DAYS OUT

 Sunday October 16, 2022.

We are roughly a little over three weeks from the 2022 midterm elections here in the United States. Things are up in the air as what many thought should have been an easy victory for the GOP was thrown asunder in June when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, removing bodily autonomy from those who can get pregnant; making a little over half the u.s. population second-class citizens in the process.  While this has managed to energize Democrats giving them something they can appeal to independents and more moderate voters over it has left common political wisdom up in the air.

As for the Coupublicans, candidates highly endorsed by the Mad Fuhrer (Now Currently in Exile @) Mar-A-Lago seem to be edging further and further towards enabling fascism. A majority of GOP voters polled refused to accept that the Mad Fuhrer lost the election in 2020, claiming that voting machines and "illegal voters" stole the election from the former electoral vote winner. Conservative politicians are increasingly relying on culture war issues that target LGBTQ people as well as racial minorities as a way to keep their base angry rather than work with Democrats to try and improve the lives of their constituents.  Add to the sense that the more extreme of the GOP politicians would rather settle scores for their dear leader the work on the issues that affect our lives and you get a feeling that, if they win in November, this country could go down a dark and dire path.

In the meantime, the right-wing media as well as politicians gaslight the rest of us. They claim the overturn of Roe isn't that big of a deal even though we're already seeing scenarios a scary and deadly as those feminists warned us would happen if abortion  is outlawed while they claim that those who can't get pregnant can merely travel to a state where the procedure is legal they don't take into account the costs that could prohibit many from doing so. They also refuse to acknowledged they fully plan on trying to introduce a federal abortion ban if they get a chance. Add to this some pharmacist are refusing to sell people contraception and we're beginning to see a certain segment of one religion being imposed on us more and more.

As for the Supreme Court it appears they may be taking all the keys that could probably allow states to control how elections are conducted. While it seems harmless enough on the surface, States with GOP Governors and/or legislators are increasingly willing to consider not accepting election results don't fit the outcome they want. When mixed with voter suppression efforts and possible intimidation at the polls in November and we have a very scary mix that could bring the game against the will of the people.

And it's not just abortion rights either. Coupublicans have hinted that they want SCOTUS to overtun the ruling that legalized same sex marriage, with some politicians even calling for allowing states to imprison people for sodomy.  In addition, there are signs that the right wing wants to strip away the right os people to use contraception as well.  While Coupublican politicians and right wing pundits gaslight us by saying this can't happen, what we've seen coming from states that have re-criminalized the right of pregnant people to get an abortion where women almost have to practically die to get abortions needed to save a woman's life because doctors and hospitals don't know how to respond in a time where the hard right caught the car and allowed laws based on horrible theory to get passed a lot of us know to expect if the Coupublicans regain control of Congress.

As for the candidates themselves, some of the key races are really too close to call. This is true even if some of the candidates endorsed by the Mad Fuhrer seem to be embracing white supremacy, making christianity the national religion in spite of the First Amendment saying they can't, or just seem to be plain incompetent. Whether this is due to polarization, the fact most people don't how time to study politics deeply, or just blind faith it's hard to tell at this point (though it's likely a mixture of the three). Either way we're at a scary time right now.

It's easy at this point, especially if you live in a red state, to fall into despair and throw up your hands thinking you can't make a difference. However, well there's no guarantee what will happen at the polls in a few weeks, just giving up and letting them steamroll over your civil liberties is a guarantee that you can't make a difference.

A few people I know feel that SCOTUS overturning Roe was lighting a tinderbox, that into angered enough women to get out and vote out the GOP in a landslide this fall. While I want to believe this is correct I'm not so certain. I worried that some people who may not be extremely right wing on social issues they still vote for the GOP out of fear of rising taxes. In addition there are still a number women who would gladly vote against their own interests in the they'll never need what they're voting against ( thinking they'll never need an abortion for example or or if they did that there's will be the exception but other people who need it should be punished for it). Add to it the fact that a lot of people are kept too busy with their employment to study the issues and things really could go either way.

So what to do now? First up we all have to vote. While it's far from the only thing that can be done right now the first necessary step is for those of us that oppose the Coupublican agenda in all its forms the show up and overpower the right-wing assholes at the voting booth. The Coupublicans are going to do their damnedest to suppress the vote and tried to stay in power by any means necessary (note how the supposed "pro life" boaters suddenly don't care about GA Senate candidate Herschel Walker supposedly paying for several abortions despite wanting it completely outlawed as an example). Yes sometimes you're voting for least shitty of the bunch but on one side wants to get away with a coup or force an extremely narrow definition of christianity down our throats (like too many Coupublicans seem to want to) then we might have to suck it up and make sure the right wing loses.

In addition, we're going to have to take to the streets and make our voices heard to the best of our legal ability. The Republicans are not going to give up they're sick plan for a one-party system (Karl Rove had a vision for the GOP to be a permanent supermajority during the Dubya years and the party seems hell-bent on making that so) and seems willing to stop at nothing to get it. This has to be countered and fought every step of the way politically. It means calling both sides on the carpet when needed but knowing where the true danger really is right now.  This is far from a complete look at what's at stake but it's a relatively good capsulisation of how things stand and what needs to be done.

So who do I think is going to win in November? I don't know ( and I have little hope doubt the good white Christian folks in the red state Heartland are going to do the right thing on jack shit). However, I want to be proven wrong and I really do hope that the people predicting that the GOP will go down in flames politically like the Hindenburg are right.

Whether that happens or not is up to me and you, so vote.