March 11 2020_ Primary Election Commentary and Thoughts on White Suburban Moderates and their Role

Yesterday, six states held primary elections in the run up to the 2020 Presidential election in the U.S.  The result was Joe Biden winning four of them (Mississippi, Missouri, Michigan, and Idaho) with Sen. Bernie Sanders winning North Dakota and Washington state still too close to call at this point.,  In the process, the delegate spread is moved further with Biden holding an almost 200 delegate lead over Sanders and calls in the mainstream media and amongst Biden supporters for Sanders to drop out and that it's all over - hoping for a coronation that the establishment Dems and media pundits have long been used to.  With this in mind I wanted to post a quick commentary on the issue.

Is it all over yet?  The establishment narrative is that Biden has this on lock and Sanders should just disappear somewhere.  However, with over 50% of delegates still up for grabs it's still too soon to say it's all over.  What is accurate is to point out that it's a lot more difficult for the Sanders campaign from this point forward.  While post Super Tuesday may have made the race 50-50, last night's results have made it 61.5-38.5 in Biden's favor.  While Sanders' supporters can feel disheartened there's still a slog ahead - a very dangerous slog up a very steep hill, but a slog nonetheless. 

So why is Biden seemingly conquering the race when two weeks ago he seemed to be almost dead?  One reason is large percentage of black votes for Biden (which we'll discuss in another post).  Along with this factor is a high turnout of white suburban moderate voters in many of the primary states.  While the mainstream media views this as a good sign for the party establishment I'm not so sure.  For example, while white suburban moderates may have been counted on for primary votes how many of them will vote blue no matter who come November (rather than use the phrase as a condescending cudgel against progressives and those fighting issues the Dems all claim to like and support)?  While the current coronavirus has put the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago on the ropes one has to take into account that the white moderate often tends to be silent when it comes to issues like the Mad Fuhrer and company locking kids in cages at the border or issues of racial justice.  Because they feel these issues don't affect them it should be inquired whether they're really tired of electoral vote winner Donny or just wanting to kneecap Bernie Sanders like establishment forces inside Elizabeth Warren's campaign did to her campaign from the inside (notice how when she started getting more and more moderate it didn't translate to votes and she was out after Super Tuesday). 

So why are they appearing now?  According to exit polls, they claim to want a return to normalcy after three years of the current regime.  However, what normalcy means to the moderate can be up for interpretation. Do they really want a change from the policies of the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago and a shift towards sanity, if not real change or do they just want things to be less awkward with their Repub friends and family members?  I ask this question not to be impudent or difficult but because the Democratic Party establishment has a long history of taking minority votes for granted while seeming to bend over backwards to get suburban whites (even to the point of trying at times to try and throw key issues the party supports under the bus in hopes of gaining their support, as the Missouri Democratic Party in 2018 briefly tried to do with abortion rights before realizing it turned more of their voters off rather than drew in white conservative christians in rural and outer suburban areas). 

Anotrher reason I wonder about this is the knowledge that several of the states Biden won yesterday are most likely going to go for the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago in the general election this November.  Mississippi, for example, had a large number of black voters in the priamry but has been blood red for so long you know damn well a blend of white voters choosing racism over country mixed with voter suppression tactics will go hand in hand to try and screw over Democratic voters), almost making it a shoo-in for electoral vote winner Donny.  Missouri had been a bellwether state until 20 years ago and could've gone either way.  However, way too many white Missourians love their racism which, along with a war on those who can get pregnant, will turn them out for the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago, especially in outer suburban and rural areas. 

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this.  However, if Biden does get the nomination they'll have to work damn hard to win over disgruntled Sanders supporters (and knowing that no [primary winner ever gets 100% of the losers supporters in any race) and, given Biden's habit of getting angry when asked challenging questions, this could be a problem.  It's also an issue when factoring in the white suburban moderate who, while we hope would go out and get electoral vote winner Donny out of office this fall, are comfortable enough where issues of life and death and inequality don';t affect them so one can nauseatingly envision a chunk of them voting for Biden in the primary and then going back towards MAGA-dom this fall. 

Unless whoever wins the nomination for the Democrats takes this into account and has safeguards against that contingency it could bite them in the ass this November. 

The Primary Race So Far - And Another Round of Voting

Before we get into this, pardon my inactivity over the past couple weeks.  I've been busy at the paying job and needed to rest.  The down side is I was a little out of action.  On the other hand it gave me room to process and think.,

So, since Super Tuesday it's been reduced to a two person race for the most part between former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders after Mike Bloomberg dropped out last Wednesday and Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the race last Thursday.  In the aftermath there's the divide between Biden followers and Bernie followers seems to be getting hyped up more in social media as well as the corporate owned mainstream media.  While Warren so far hasn't made an endorsement, there appears to be some key Warren endorsements who switched to supporting Sanders.  As the media tried to whip up a scare of Bernie Bros being mean on the Internet (trying to give the impression that all Sanders supporters are like that), there seems to be an attempt to overlook a few things.

First, while the media and Biden supporters want everything to think it's a done deal we have to remember that the primary race is still far from over.  At this point Biden has more delegates but it's still a 50-50 race as we head towards the Democratic Convention.

Tomorrow primaries will be held in six states (Idaho, North Dakota, Michigan, Washington, Mississippi, and TTWN's original home base of Missouri).  365 delegates are at stake 99.2% available).   While the results will still be far from the 1,991 pledged delegates the Dems need for a nomination.  While some predict it'll go easy for Biden (and it might) I still hold by the fact that it's anyone's guess who gets more delegates tomorrow.  It's easy for media pundits to armchair quarterback but they're guessing as much as the rest of us. 

Regardless of what happens one thing is certain - it's still going to be a long hard slog between now and November.

Primary/Caucus Race Update and Thoughts on Tomorrow (Super Tuesday)

So tomorrow's Super Tuesday.

Apologies for not being on the blog lately but I've been busy between the paying job, trying to get the new print issue done, and trying to keep healthy in this weird age.  As a result there's a bit about the election primary race that snuck under the radar that I want to comment on. So, let's get to it.

First, since Iowa Bernie Sanders has taken ground in a lot of ways.  After winning the popular vote in Iowa (but not the delegates for some reasons) the Senator from Vermont won the New Hampshire primary but still was criticized by mainstream pundits for being popular in small mostly white states.  Then came the Nevada caucus where Sanders managed to get an overwhelming and decisive win that gave him momentum.

Yes, former vice president Joe Biden had a big win in South Carolina last Saturday but he was expected to win to some degree.  Sanders' second place win was narrower than it was against Hillary Clinton in 2016 but the mainstream pundits seemed to revel in this and hope that it kills either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren's chances of winning the election.  It doesn't take into account that SC has a heavy military presence and that Democrats there may be more centrist for that and other reasons.  Add name recognition and his win shouldn't be a big surprise.  Billionaire Ton Steyer suspended his campaign almost immediately thereafter

The dropping out of the race and support of Biden in the wake of Saturday may have some impact.  Both former South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg and MN Sen. Amy Klobuchar suspended their campaigns and have gone on record to endorse Biden. Along with former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, this alliance is giving the mainstream media a chance to brag about Biden's rebirth and how he can clearly take the race from more progressive candidates. 

Which leads us to Super Tuesday.  With over 1,000 delegates at play and 14 states in play this is where anything can happen.  Could it be a game changer for Biden (after only winning one state)?  It's possible.  Could Bernie Sanders win large in California and have a decent win in Texas and be close to unstoppable?  That's possible too.  Sen. Elizabeth Warren could even mount a comeback out of left field and keep the race tighter than the coronation the corporate owned mainstream media would like it to be. 

The truth of the matter is I don't know what's going to happen once votes are counted on Tuesday March 3, 2020 - and neither does anyone else really.  People have some ideas of what might happen but media pundits treating it like a sporting event on the old Wide World of Sports show might not necessarily be a realistic look at how things are on the ground. 

So, what I suggest is to take a deep breath, relax, and realize that the election primary race still isn't over.  People still have to vote for the candidate they like best (remember, if any time is the time to vote their hearts it's here).  Maybe the person they like is electable, maybe not.  Regardless, the race is far from over.