Sunday, April 24, 2016

Primary Blather- Post NY Stateof MInd and What Next.

Hey!  Sorry it took so long to get back to this but I've been busy with other things in my life.

First, the New York primary was Tuesday and the media expectation of who would win was fulfilled with Donald Drumpf, I mean Trump, winning the Republican primary and Hillary Clinton breaking Bernie Sanders' momentum of winning eight of the last nine races for the Democrats.  Admittedly, a closed primary is be more beneficial to Clinton, especially one where people have to register with a party six months in advance of the actual primary election.  We;ll get to that later but first let's look at this Tuesday.

There are five primaries coming up this Tuesday (Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island and Delaware).  All are closed primaries, which means that if Clinton sweeps all five of them, she can further set back Bernie Sanders and make the path to the nomination even harder to overcome.  Clinton and Trump are leading in Pennsylvania but, as we've learned in this race up to this point, it's foolish to assume anything is certain. 

Which leads to reports of closed polling places and people showing up to find themselves either registered as another party or not listed last Tuesday.  While such reports of making things harder for people who wish to vote is always annoying, it's especially annoying when a state has six months to make sure things run smoothly.  190 days to know who is with what party shouldn't have those mistakes.  Add to this the 120,000 plus people purged from the polls suddenly and it's easy to see something is fucked up. 

Now, if you're a Clinton supporter reading this, it's easy to dismiss it as sour grapes from Bernie Sanders supporters and his campaign.  However, just because these flaws and errors benefit your candidate this time, what's to keep these same tricks form being used against you when you vote in the general. 

In New York there are claims that an investigation will take place.If so, it must be done as soon as possible ad transparently so that we can get to the bottom of this before November, not after the votes have been counted.

As for the states ahead.  Sanders is down but not out.  Thanks to the delegate conventions in several states, he only trails Clinton by 240 or so delegates  (1202 to 1446 according to the NY Times, not including superdelegates).  While closed primaries will be a fly in his ointment, they don't guarantee Hillary Clinton the nomination yet. With 1,668 pledged delegates still up for grabs, a lot can happen.

As for the Republicans, Donald Drumpf, I mean Trump, continues his path the the nomination.  However, he also finds himself dealing with state GOP primaries trying to make sure there are enough delegates for Cruz or Kasich to make a brokered convention.   While the push to be more extreme continues to be overlooked by the mainstream media it does show the general public a scary path as the election nears this fall.

While we have a vague idea of what could happen on tuesday via polls et al, one thing will remain.  The path to November continues and we're probably going to be sick of it all by the time the general election happens. 

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

CORRECTION on the Last Post

In the original version of the previous post I incorrectly noted that the New York primary was being held today.  It actually will be next week on Tuesday April 19.

While the error has been corrected I want to apologize for that rookie mistake.  I also want to say that its easy to assume such given all the mainstream media hoopla that almost completely overlooked Wyoming in its wake.  Obviously New York is going to get a lot of media coverage due to its population size.  However, I do wonder if some of the media hype is based on the fact that NYC is one of the media and news centers of the country, thus making it extremely easy to examine. 

Hope this clears everything up,  Sorry about that.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

That Was The Primary Week That Was - Next up New York!!!

Sorry for the delay.  I've been a little distracted so let's get to it.

First, on the Democratic side Bernie Sanders won the primaries in Wisconsin last Tuesday and Wyoming yesterday by a relatively good margin.  While they may not radically change the delegate count (they were divided even between him and Hillary Clinton in WY), it does keep the momentum moving for the road ahead.

Meanwhile, Wyoming seemed to be all but overlooked as New York's primary approaches on Tuesday April19.  It is here that the campaign is really starting to look like an election campaign.  With the media hyping up some stumbles Bernie Sanders gave in an interview to the New York Daily News editorial board that the mainstream press has hyped as a failure, some reports have suggested that it may not be as much of a disaster as the corporate owned media making it out to be with even one eyewitness account giving a more nuanced picture of what actually occurred.

Add to this the implication over Sanders' qualifications to be President from the Clinton campaign and Sanders' own response (which brought up her Super PAC receiving money from Wall Street as well as her vote for the Iraq war in 2003 as examples) and the race is looking like a political fight.  And there's a reason for this,

The New York primary offers 291 delegates for the Democrats.  Sanders needs to, if not win outright, get a significant chunk to keep momentum going.  Clinton has to win big to try and knock the wind out of the momentum Sanders has from his last seven victories.  There's currently a 250 delegate count between them (because superdelegates can change their pledge between now and the Convention, I have left them out of the count) and NY can push Sanders back a bit. 

However, delegates are still awarded proportionately here so it's not winner take all.  This means that, while Clinton can knock Sanders' stride back, it doesn't guarantee her the nomination.  Add to this Sanders having the money to keep going until damn close to the Convention and the race continues.

But what's it like for the Republicans?

According to polls Donald Drumpf, I mean Donald trump, has a double digit lead over ted Cruz and John Kasich.  Being a native New Yorker will be an advantage (just as Cruz' use of the term "new York values" as a smear will likely work against him). However, only 91 delegates are at stake here and Trump's recent comments over nuclear weapons have drawn some controversy.  Add to this an CNN/ORC poll stating that 73% of women have a negative view of Trump as well as similar negative views in other polls and things are looking slippery for him, especially if he gets the nomination. 

Ironically, this doesn't mean that Cruz or Kasich are any better.  Kasich's moderate spin hides a very conservative streak and Cruz is even worse than Drumpf on a number of issues.  However, with trump leading in polls among NY Republican primary voters he isn't out yet. 

Also worth noting for both parties is that New York has a closed primary system in which only registered members of either party can vote in said primary.  This will likely benefit both Clinton and trump though leave a lot of voters in the cold.

Still, while there are hints of what could happen it will be hard to see clearly until the numbers are counted.  Either way there's still seven months to go before the general and between SuperPACs, negative ads, and voter suppression attempts, chances are many of us will be begging for it to be over by the time the first Tuesday in November starts.