Sunday, April 24, 2016

Primary Blather- Post NY Stateof MInd and What Next.

Hey!  Sorry it took so long to get back to this but I've been busy with other things in my life.

First, the New York primary was Tuesday and the media expectation of who would win was fulfilled with Donald Drumpf, I mean Trump, winning the Republican primary and Hillary Clinton breaking Bernie Sanders' momentum of winning eight of the last nine races for the Democrats.  Admittedly, a closed primary is be more beneficial to Clinton, especially one where people have to register with a party six months in advance of the actual primary election.  We;ll get to that later but first let's look at this Tuesday.

There are five primaries coming up this Tuesday (Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island and Delaware).  All are closed primaries, which means that if Clinton sweeps all five of them, she can further set back Bernie Sanders and make the path to the nomination even harder to overcome.  Clinton and Trump are leading in Pennsylvania but, as we've learned in this race up to this point, it's foolish to assume anything is certain. 

Which leads to reports of closed polling places and people showing up to find themselves either registered as another party or not listed last Tuesday.  While such reports of making things harder for people who wish to vote is always annoying, it's especially annoying when a state has six months to make sure things run smoothly.  190 days to know who is with what party shouldn't have those mistakes.  Add to this the 120,000 plus people purged from the polls suddenly and it's easy to see something is fucked up. 

Now, if you're a Clinton supporter reading this, it's easy to dismiss it as sour grapes from Bernie Sanders supporters and his campaign.  However, just because these flaws and errors benefit your candidate this time, what's to keep these same tricks form being used against you when you vote in the general. 

In New York there are claims that an investigation will take place.If so, it must be done as soon as possible ad transparently so that we can get to the bottom of this before November, not after the votes have been counted.

As for the states ahead.  Sanders is down but not out.  Thanks to the delegate conventions in several states, he only trails Clinton by 240 or so delegates  (1202 to 1446 according to the NY Times, not including superdelegates).  While closed primaries will be a fly in his ointment, they don't guarantee Hillary Clinton the nomination yet. With 1,668 pledged delegates still up for grabs, a lot can happen.

As for the Republicans, Donald Drumpf, I mean Trump, continues his path the the nomination.  However, he also finds himself dealing with state GOP primaries trying to make sure there are enough delegates for Cruz or Kasich to make a brokered convention.   While the push to be more extreme continues to be overlooked by the mainstream media it does show the general public a scary path as the election nears this fall.

While we have a vague idea of what could happen on tuesday via polls et al, one thing will remain.  The path to November continues and we're probably going to be sick of it all by the time the general election happens. 

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