Sunday, April 10, 2016

That Was The Primary Week That Was - Next up New York!!!

Sorry for the delay.  I've been a little distracted so let's get to it.

First, on the Democratic side Bernie Sanders won the primaries in Wisconsin last Tuesday and Wyoming yesterday by a relatively good margin.  While they may not radically change the delegate count (they were divided even between him and Hillary Clinton in WY), it does keep the momentum moving for the road ahead.

Meanwhile, Wyoming seemed to be all but overlooked as New York's primary approaches on Tuesday April19.  It is here that the campaign is really starting to look like an election campaign.  With the media hyping up some stumbles Bernie Sanders gave in an interview to the New York Daily News editorial board that the mainstream press has hyped as a failure, some reports have suggested that it may not be as much of a disaster as the corporate owned media making it out to be with even one eyewitness account giving a more nuanced picture of what actually occurred.

Add to this the implication over Sanders' qualifications to be President from the Clinton campaign and Sanders' own response (which brought up her Super PAC receiving money from Wall Street as well as her vote for the Iraq war in 2003 as examples) and the race is looking like a political fight.  And there's a reason for this,

The New York primary offers 291 delegates for the Democrats.  Sanders needs to, if not win outright, get a significant chunk to keep momentum going.  Clinton has to win big to try and knock the wind out of the momentum Sanders has from his last seven victories.  There's currently a 250 delegate count between them (because superdelegates can change their pledge between now and the Convention, I have left them out of the count) and NY can push Sanders back a bit. 

However, delegates are still awarded proportionately here so it's not winner take all.  This means that, while Clinton can knock Sanders' stride back, it doesn't guarantee her the nomination.  Add to this Sanders having the money to keep going until damn close to the Convention and the race continues.

But what's it like for the Republicans?

According to polls Donald Drumpf, I mean Donald trump, has a double digit lead over ted Cruz and John Kasich.  Being a native New Yorker will be an advantage (just as Cruz' use of the term "new York values" as a smear will likely work against him). However, only 91 delegates are at stake here and Trump's recent comments over nuclear weapons have drawn some controversy.  Add to this an CNN/ORC poll stating that 73% of women have a negative view of Trump as well as similar negative views in other polls and things are looking slippery for him, especially if he gets the nomination. 

Ironically, this doesn't mean that Cruz or Kasich are any better.  Kasich's moderate spin hides a very conservative streak and Cruz is even worse than Drumpf on a number of issues.  However, with trump leading in polls among NY Republican primary voters he isn't out yet. 

Also worth noting for both parties is that New York has a closed primary system in which only registered members of either party can vote in said primary.  This will likely benefit both Clinton and trump though leave a lot of voters in the cold.

Still, while there are hints of what could happen it will be hard to see clearly until the numbers are counted.  Either way there's still seven months to go before the general and between SuperPACs, negative ads, and voter suppression attempts, chances are many of us will be begging for it to be over by the time the first Tuesday in November starts.

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