Tuesday, May 17, 2016

2016 Primaries - One More Stop Then the Final Stretch.

Hey!  Sorry for the delay but I've had other things to deal with.  First, let's get last week underway.]

A week ago today Bernie Sanders won in West Virginia. While it's not a big number in terms of delegates it did show momentum and that counting him out now may be a little bit premature.  Today however are the primaries in Kentucky and Oregon.  The former state appears to be rough for both Hillary Clinton and Sanders though there have been some prediction of a narrow Clinton win. 

As for Oregon, it appears that momentum and the polls favor Sanders.  Add automatic voter registration into the mix and there's a possible move that could benefit Sanders.  However, many of those automatically registered are unaffiliated or didn't register as Democrats in time, which means they can't vote in the Oregon primary election.  This makes things more difficult but it doesn't count him out yet.

What is telling is these are the last primary elections until June 7th when six states (including California) are up for grabs, followed by Washington, DC a week later.  Now we're getting to the point where superdelegates are going to have their role as the convention nears. 

What does that have to do with today?  In terms of pledged delegates Sanders still has 1,433 compared to Clinton's 1716.  The chances of Sanders blowing out Clinton is increasingly slim, meaning that every state has to count.  Once June rolls around, superdelegates will be an issue to be factored in so the path is getting more nad more narrow.  That doesn't mean it's all over but it is becoming an uphill climb. 

As for the state convention in Nevada where tensions between Clinton delegates and Sanders delegates got ugly., the overall stretch was only a couple of delegates but video of some of the voice votes shows a ton of tension between sides that is going to have to be dealt with before the convention.  While Clinton won in Nevada the support of those backing Bernie still has to be earned and shouldn't be assumed to be a given.  That goes with any politician and I would say the same if Sanders had won and there was tension towards them from Clinton supporters. 

While I have an idea what might happen I feel that a clearer picture won't happen until June.  Because of that I'm still holding to the line that anything can happen and this election cycle has showed us not to assume anything is a given.

As for those asking about the GOP side.  Donald Drumpf, I mean trump, should just admit that he was John Miller in that tape pretending to be a PR person for the Donald.  He already apologized for it back in 1991 so denying it's him is even more ridiculous than usual so admit it and move on. 

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

From Indiana to West Virginia

Hey!  Sorry for the delay.  I was getting a print issue done and I had some housesitting over the weekend.  Also, like many of you I was trying to absorb what happened. 

A week ago today Indiana held primary elections for the Presidential race.  On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders beat former Sen. (and former Sec. of State) Hillary Clinton 53%-47% (actually 52.7 to 47.3, but general rounding applies).  While this proved that Bernie Sanders still has some momentum and shouldn't be counted out yet, the real shake up was in the GOP race. 

Yes, I'm talking about presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Donald Drumpf, I mean trump.

Trump was expected to win last week but few were expecting the aftermath.  For Ted Cruz, who called Indiana his "firewall" it was the writing on the wall.  Just after the election Cruz suspended his campaign, followed the next morning by John Kasich.  This was shocking given that I thought for sure Kasich would've left the race before the Cubadian.  In less than 24 hours a three person race dropped to just the Donald alone.  Since then the mainstream media has been trying to claim that Drumpf is acting more presidential but his habit of flip flopping and saying what he thinks the crowd wants to hear is still problematic as he heads towards the general election.

This leads us to today's primary in West Virginia.  While polls show Sanders ahead of Clinton, WV is one of those states whose Democratic party has received funds from the Clinton campaign.  While a few voices in the wilderness are concerned about fraud, it could go either way.  With only 29 delegates at stake a victory here is a slow burn more than an obvious attack so it might be more of a victory for morale as the Democrats head towards the convention in July. 

Still, some of the media is asking Sanders to drop out and let Clinton focus on Drumpf, I mean trump. However, I remember one of the blurbs at an early debate was Hillary Clinton telling Bernie Sanders that the President has to focus on more than one thing at a time.  Thus, she should be able to handle both Bernie Sanders and Drumpf. 

In any case, the shake up has brought more clarity and still shows that things are not carved in stone yet.  We're still have a while until the general.

Monday, May 2, 2016

Indiana Wants (insert candidate name here). Or At Least It Will Tomorrow

Hey!  My apologies for slacking off a bot on the primary commentaries lately.  Between personal issues and the wi fi connection being slower than usual it hasn't been so easy to post these as I'd like.  The Indiana primary is tomorrow and we'll get to that but let's first discuss last week.

Last Tuesday primary elections were held in Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.  For the Republicans Donald Drumpf, excuse me Trump, won all five states - making his quest for the GOP nomination way closer to reality than anybody thought last year.  As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton kept up a 300-350 pledged delegate lead over Bernie Sanders by winning four of the five states (Sanders won Rhode Island).  While it appears more likely that Clinton will snare the Democratic Party nomination, a still narrow path exists for Sanders to make sure it's not a slam dunk. 

Along with the primary results last week were the usual cries in the media that Sanders should drop out and let Clinton focus on Trump.  Overlooking the fact that a President has to focus on more than one thing, such calls seem to ignore the fact that in 2008 Clinton stayed in the race until June and reportedly dropped out several days after the last primary.  With a couple of larger states up ahead (most notably California), this might still be a competitive race of sorts. 

Which leads us to Indiana tomorrow.  It is a tight race for Clinton and Sanders, according to the polls.  However, polls also have Drumpf away ahead of Ted Cruz.  So, at a the when one party may further solidify its grip with one candidate, the other side is still in anything can happen.

I wish I had more to say about this.  But time will tell on this one. 

What is the case if the primary race is getting increasingly closer to the point where superdelegates will begin to have some clout.  While much of the mainstream media has counted them since the start, I have avoided doing so given that they can change their pledge anytime between now and the Democratic Convention later this summer.  Because of this, it was disingenous to count them when they usually weren't counted in the past. However, as the race winds down it's getting to the point when their pledges will be of more relevance.  Odds are they'll go with the popular vote at the Convention but who knows at this time.

Get ready for the last few primaries.  It's going to still be a long ride until November.