Tuesday, May 17, 2016

2016 Primaries - One More Stop Then the Final Stretch.

Hey!  Sorry for the delay but I've had other things to deal with.  First, let's get last week underway.]

A week ago today Bernie Sanders won in West Virginia. While it's not a big number in terms of delegates it did show momentum and that counting him out now may be a little bit premature.  Today however are the primaries in Kentucky and Oregon.  The former state appears to be rough for both Hillary Clinton and Sanders though there have been some prediction of a narrow Clinton win. 

As for Oregon, it appears that momentum and the polls favor Sanders.  Add automatic voter registration into the mix and there's a possible move that could benefit Sanders.  However, many of those automatically registered are unaffiliated or didn't register as Democrats in time, which means they can't vote in the Oregon primary election.  This makes things more difficult but it doesn't count him out yet.

What is telling is these are the last primary elections until June 7th when six states (including California) are up for grabs, followed by Washington, DC a week later.  Now we're getting to the point where superdelegates are going to have their role as the convention nears. 

What does that have to do with today?  In terms of pledged delegates Sanders still has 1,433 compared to Clinton's 1716.  The chances of Sanders blowing out Clinton is increasingly slim, meaning that every state has to count.  Once June rolls around, superdelegates will be an issue to be factored in so the path is getting more nad more narrow.  That doesn't mean it's all over but it is becoming an uphill climb. 

As for the state convention in Nevada where tensions between Clinton delegates and Sanders delegates got ugly., the overall stretch was only a couple of delegates but video of some of the voice votes shows a ton of tension between sides that is going to have to be dealt with before the convention.  While Clinton won in Nevada the support of those backing Bernie still has to be earned and shouldn't be assumed to be a given.  That goes with any politician and I would say the same if Sanders had won and there was tension towards them from Clinton supporters. 

While I have an idea what might happen I feel that a clearer picture won't happen until June.  Because of that I'm still holding to the line that anything can happen and this election cycle has showed us not to assume anything is a given.

As for those asking about the GOP side.  Donald Drumpf, I mean trump, should just admit that he was John Miller in that tape pretending to be a PR person for the Donald.  He already apologized for it back in 1991 so denying it's him is even more ridiculous than usual so admit it and move on. 

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