Monday, May 2, 2016

Indiana Wants (insert candidate name here). Or At Least It Will Tomorrow

Hey!  My apologies for slacking off a bot on the primary commentaries lately.  Between personal issues and the wi fi connection being slower than usual it hasn't been so easy to post these as I'd like.  The Indiana primary is tomorrow and we'll get to that but let's first discuss last week.

Last Tuesday primary elections were held in Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.  For the Republicans Donald Drumpf, excuse me Trump, won all five states - making his quest for the GOP nomination way closer to reality than anybody thought last year.  As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton kept up a 300-350 pledged delegate lead over Bernie Sanders by winning four of the five states (Sanders won Rhode Island).  While it appears more likely that Clinton will snare the Democratic Party nomination, a still narrow path exists for Sanders to make sure it's not a slam dunk. 

Along with the primary results last week were the usual cries in the media that Sanders should drop out and let Clinton focus on Trump.  Overlooking the fact that a President has to focus on more than one thing, such calls seem to ignore the fact that in 2008 Clinton stayed in the race until June and reportedly dropped out several days after the last primary.  With a couple of larger states up ahead (most notably California), this might still be a competitive race of sorts. 

Which leads us to Indiana tomorrow.  It is a tight race for Clinton and Sanders, according to the polls.  However, polls also have Drumpf away ahead of Ted Cruz.  So, at a the when one party may further solidify its grip with one candidate, the other side is still in anything can happen.

I wish I had more to say about this.  But time will tell on this one. 

What is the case if the primary race is getting increasingly closer to the point where superdelegates will begin to have some clout.  While much of the mainstream media has counted them since the start, I have avoided doing so given that they can change their pledge anytime between now and the Democratic Convention later this summer.  Because of this, it was disingenous to count them when they usually weren't counted in the past. However, as the race winds down it's getting to the point when their pledges will be of more relevance.  Odds are they'll go with the popular vote at the Convention but who knows at this time.

Get ready for the last few primaries.  It's going to still be a long ride until November.

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