TWO WEEKS TIL THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS - SOME THOUGHTS

Tuesday October 25, 2022....

As I type this we are two weeks away from the 2022 midterm elections here in the United States. As it stands now things still seem to be up in the air where what was at first thought to be a victory for the Coupublican's to win back at least one of the houses of Congress got put in Jeopardy after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade over the summer but I might have a chance of getting back to that again.

As pundits and political scientists have their predictions of what might happen in 2 weeks I have to admit that I'm not sure who's going to win the election. If you're being honest neither do you.

Part of the current feeling that the Coupublicans could win at least one of the houses of Congress lies traditional political reasons dumb that the incumbent party in the White House always loses at least one of the houses of Congress in the midterm election. They're also citing recent polls that claimed that the economy is the most pressing issue for American voters Ball by crime abortion being third or fourth depending on who you ask. Establishing pundits are using this as proof of it being a horse race while some people in the GOP kind of hoping that it depresses enough potential Democratic voters that they stay home on Election Day, that's making their Victory a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The problem with this line of thinking, especially when it comes to the polls, is that the recent polls are almost all within the margin of error (except for one that predicted a win or lose margin of 11 seats, making it an outlier). Because of the margins of error, and the fact that these polls rely on likely voters, I find myself in agreement with journalist and YouTuber Beau of the Fifth Column when he says the outcome of the midterms just depends how many unlikely voters did they need to go out and vote when they normally wouldn't. With this in mind it really does go down to motivate more of the unlikely voters to the boat and what issues they'll vote on.

This could mean the news for the Democrats given their positions and  policies tend to be more popular with everyday people then the GOP policies are.  However, there tends to be a belief among a lot of people (fueled In part by the corporate media narrative) that the coupublicans would be better for the economy. While looking at the actual data makes this a little far-fetched the belief persists.

This leads us to a dark horse theory amongst the current political wisdom. Michael Moore stated and continues to predict the Democrats will keep control of both houses of Congress come the midterms, fighting the number of women angry over losing their reproductive rights as well as increasing number of young people finally able to vote in their first election.  While some people in the mainstream media are calling Moore's statements wishful thinking it should be noted that Moore was one of the few people in 2016 to protect that Hillary Clinton would lose the election. He didn't want it to happen (and even did a special presentation to try and get out the vote for the Democrats) but he, unfortunately.  turned out to be right. Yes there is no guarantee that he'll be correct this time. Still, Michael Moore does tend to have more of a sense of what the average person wants or is seeking out then a lot of mainstream political pundits.

What do I think about that? I'm not certain. I do believe that a lot of people who can get pregnant are pissed off about losing the right to control their own bodies and make health decisions for themselves. However, I also know that too many people in suburbia (especially white moderates) might not like the Coupublicans stances on social conservatism and culture war issues but may be perfectly willing to give up their own rights and freedoms under the belief that the GOP will lower taxes and that culture war issues will never affect them. Some of these people may still be on the fence but may have a hard time being convinced that it can affect them as election day nears

The reality of the midterm elections is simple. The winner will be whichever side gets more people to vote. While the GOP normally goes out to vote in every election (and has some on their side willing to try and prevent others from voting via voter suppression laws and the light to prevent turn out) there is one factor where are the Coupublicans may have overestimated. Mainly their attacks on women, minorities,  and LGBTQ people and issues may piss off a lot of people to the point where they'll be willing to vote in a midterm they normally wouldn't. 

 It is here where I feel a little bit of hope. Even with that though, it's still up to people to get out there and vote. 

 While voting isn't the only way to achieve social change in this country it is one of the simplest and the one that most of us are expected to do (yet yet some of the people and parties in power want to actually make that more difficult). If those who are able to vote who disagree with current political wisdom are willing to brave the lines at the polls and make their voices heard with their vote, people who want a better world it have a step towards getting there. 

MIDTERM ELECTION THOUGHTS 23 DAYS OUT

 Sunday October 16, 2022.

We are roughly a little over three weeks from the 2022 midterm elections here in the United States. Things are up in the air as what many thought should have been an easy victory for the GOP was thrown asunder in June when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, removing bodily autonomy from those who can get pregnant; making a little over half the u.s. population second-class citizens in the process.  While this has managed to energize Democrats giving them something they can appeal to independents and more moderate voters over it has left common political wisdom up in the air.

As for the Coupublicans, candidates highly endorsed by the Mad Fuhrer (Now Currently in Exile @) Mar-A-Lago seem to be edging further and further towards enabling fascism. A majority of GOP voters polled refused to accept that the Mad Fuhrer lost the election in 2020, claiming that voting machines and "illegal voters" stole the election from the former electoral vote winner. Conservative politicians are increasingly relying on culture war issues that target LGBTQ people as well as racial minorities as a way to keep their base angry rather than work with Democrats to try and improve the lives of their constituents.  Add to the sense that the more extreme of the GOP politicians would rather settle scores for their dear leader the work on the issues that affect our lives and you get a feeling that, if they win in November, this country could go down a dark and dire path.

In the meantime, the right-wing media as well as politicians gaslight the rest of us. They claim the overturn of Roe isn't that big of a deal even though we're already seeing scenarios a scary and deadly as those feminists warned us would happen if abortion  is outlawed while they claim that those who can't get pregnant can merely travel to a state where the procedure is legal they don't take into account the costs that could prohibit many from doing so. They also refuse to acknowledged they fully plan on trying to introduce a federal abortion ban if they get a chance. Add to this some pharmacist are refusing to sell people contraception and we're beginning to see a certain segment of one religion being imposed on us more and more.

As for the Supreme Court it appears they may be taking all the keys that could probably allow states to control how elections are conducted. While it seems harmless enough on the surface, States with GOP Governors and/or legislators are increasingly willing to consider not accepting election results don't fit the outcome they want. When mixed with voter suppression efforts and possible intimidation at the polls in November and we have a very scary mix that could bring the game against the will of the people.

And it's not just abortion rights either. Coupublicans have hinted that they want SCOTUS to overtun the ruling that legalized same sex marriage, with some politicians even calling for allowing states to imprison people for sodomy.  In addition, there are signs that the right wing wants to strip away the right os people to use contraception as well.  While Coupublican politicians and right wing pundits gaslight us by saying this can't happen, what we've seen coming from states that have re-criminalized the right of pregnant people to get an abortion where women almost have to practically die to get abortions needed to save a woman's life because doctors and hospitals don't know how to respond in a time where the hard right caught the car and allowed laws based on horrible theory to get passed a lot of us know to expect if the Coupublicans regain control of Congress.

As for the candidates themselves, some of the key races are really too close to call. This is true even if some of the candidates endorsed by the Mad Fuhrer seem to be embracing white supremacy, making christianity the national religion in spite of the First Amendment saying they can't, or just seem to be plain incompetent. Whether this is due to polarization, the fact most people don't how time to study politics deeply, or just blind faith it's hard to tell at this point (though it's likely a mixture of the three). Either way we're at a scary time right now.

It's easy at this point, especially if you live in a red state, to fall into despair and throw up your hands thinking you can't make a difference. However, well there's no guarantee what will happen at the polls in a few weeks, just giving up and letting them steamroll over your civil liberties is a guarantee that you can't make a difference.

A few people I know feel that SCOTUS overturning Roe was lighting a tinderbox, that into angered enough women to get out and vote out the GOP in a landslide this fall. While I want to believe this is correct I'm not so certain. I worried that some people who may not be extremely right wing on social issues they still vote for the GOP out of fear of rising taxes. In addition there are still a number women who would gladly vote against their own interests in the they'll never need what they're voting against ( thinking they'll never need an abortion for example or or if they did that there's will be the exception but other people who need it should be punished for it). Add to it the fact that a lot of people are kept too busy with their employment to study the issues and things really could go either way.

So what to do now? First up we all have to vote. While it's far from the only thing that can be done right now the first necessary step is for those of us that oppose the Coupublican agenda in all its forms the show up and overpower the right-wing assholes at the voting booth. The Coupublicans are going to do their damnedest to suppress the vote and tried to stay in power by any means necessary (note how the supposed "pro life" boaters suddenly don't care about GA Senate candidate Herschel Walker supposedly paying for several abortions despite wanting it completely outlawed as an example). Yes sometimes you're voting for least shitty of the bunch but on one side wants to get away with a coup or force an extremely narrow definition of christianity down our throats (like too many Coupublicans seem to want to) then we might have to suck it up and make sure the right wing loses.

In addition, we're going to have to take to the streets and make our voices heard to the best of our legal ability. The Republicans are not going to give up they're sick plan for a one-party system (Karl Rove had a vision for the GOP to be a permanent supermajority during the Dubya years and the party seems hell-bent on making that so) and seems willing to stop at nothing to get it. This has to be countered and fought every step of the way politically. It means calling both sides on the carpet when needed but knowing where the true danger really is right now.  This is far from a complete look at what's at stake but it's a relatively good capsulisation of how things stand and what needs to be done.

So who do I think is going to win in November? I don't know ( and I have little hope doubt the good white Christian folks in the red state Heartland are going to do the right thing on jack shit). However, I want to be proven wrong and I really do hope that the people predicting that the GOP will go down in flames politically like the Hindenburg are right.

Whether that happens or not is up to me and you, so vote.