Tuesday October 25, 2022....
As I type this we are two weeks away
from the 2022 midterm elections here in the United States. As it stands
now things still seem to be up in the air where what was at first
thought to be a victory for the Coupublican's to win back at least one
of the houses of Congress got put in Jeopardy after the Supreme Court
overturned Roe v Wade over the summer but I might have a chance of
getting back to that again.
As pundits and political scientists
have their predictions of what might happen in 2 weeks I have to admit
that I'm not sure who's going to win the election. If you're being
honest neither do you.
Part of the current feeling that the
Coupublicans could win at least one of the houses of Congress lies
traditional political reasons dumb that the incumbent party in the White
House always loses at least one of the houses of Congress in the
midterm election. They're also citing recent polls that claimed that the
economy is the most pressing issue for American voters Ball by crime
abortion being third or fourth depending on who you ask. Establishing
pundits are using this as proof of it being a horse race while some
people in the GOP kind of hoping that it depresses enough potential
Democratic voters that they stay home on Election Day, that's making
their Victory a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The problem with this
line of thinking, especially when it comes to the polls, is that the
recent polls are almost all within the margin of error (except for one that predicted a
win or lose margin of 11 seats, making it an outlier). Because of the
margins of error, and the fact that these polls rely on likely voters, I
find myself in agreement with journalist and YouTuber Beau of the Fifth
Column when he says the outcome of the midterms just depends how many unlikely voters
did they need to go out and vote when they normally wouldn't. With this
in mind it really does go down to motivate more of the unlikely voters
to the boat and what issues they'll vote on.
This could mean the
news for the Democrats given their positions and policies tend to be
more popular with everyday people then the GOP policies are. However,
there tends to be a belief among a lot of people (fueled In part by the
corporate media narrative) that the coupublicans would be better for the
economy. While looking at the actual data makes this a little
far-fetched the belief persists.
This leads us to a dark horse theory amongst the current political wisdom. Michael Moore stated and
continues to predict the Democrats will keep control of both houses of
Congress come the midterms, fighting the number of women angry over
losing their reproductive rights as well as increasing number of young
people finally able to vote in their first election. While some people
in the mainstream media are calling Moore's statements wishful thinking
it should be noted that Moore was one of the few people in 2016 to
protect that Hillary Clinton would lose the election. He didn't want it
to happen (and even did a special presentation to try and get out the
vote for the Democrats) but he, unfortunately. turned out to be right.
Yes there is no guarantee that he'll be correct this time. Still,
Michael Moore does tend to have more of a sense of what the average
person wants or is seeking out then a lot of mainstream political
pundits.
What do I think about that? I'm not certain. I do
believe that a lot of people who can get pregnant are pissed off about
losing the right to control their own bodies and make health decisions
for themselves. However, I also know that too many people in suburbia
(especially white moderates) might not like the Coupublicans stances on
social conservatism and culture war issues but may be perfectly willing
to give up their own rights and freedoms under the belief that the GOP
will lower taxes and that culture war issues will never affect them.
Some of these people may still be on the fence but may have a hard time
being convinced that it can affect them as election day nears
The
reality of the midterm elections is simple. The winner will be whichever
side gets more people to vote. While the GOP normally goes out to vote
in every election (and has some on their side willing to try and prevent
others from voting via voter suppression laws and the light to prevent
turn out) there is one factor where are the Coupublicans may have
overestimated. Mainly their attacks on women, minorities, and LGBTQ
people and issues may piss off a lot of people to the point where
they'll be willing to vote in a midterm they normally wouldn't.
It is here where I feel a little bit of hope. Even with that though, it's still up to people to get out there and vote.
While voting isn't
the only way to achieve social change in this country it is one of the
simplest and the one that most of us are expected to do (yet yet some of the people and parties in power want to actually make that more difficult). If those who are able
to vote who disagree with current political wisdom are willing to brave
the lines at the polls and make their voices heard with their vote,
people who want a better world it have a step towards getting there.
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