Wednesday, November 2, 2022

ONE WEEK, OKAY SIX DAYS ACTUALLY BUT YOU GET THE IDEA, UNTIL THE 2022 MIDTERMS

 Hey!  I was hoping to get this post done and online yesterday. However, oversleeping and recovering form finishing up another project had me needing a break.  With that in mind, let’s get to another post regarding the midterms next week. 

This time around I want to focus on how people should take into account when looking at polls, the news, et al.  I admit this likely only touches the surface but I hope this helps some people who may be freaking out right now.  As the mainstream media reports poll gaps closing and how things are razor thin in some key states, it’s easy to worry and think that all is lost.  However, since it’s not always that simple, I feel it could help to offer a few tips on how to react to the hell-ride that the midterms are being presented as.

First of all – BREATHE.  I cannot stress this enough.  Being close to hyperventilating and freaking out is perfectly understandable. However, it can also be the worst thing you can do.  Take a deep breath and take a step back.  Assess things quickly. The polls don’t always tell the whole story (we’ll get to that shortly) and constantly checking the news when they’re recycling the same talking points might actually be meant to keep you afraid and thinking your vote (if you haven’t voted already) doesn’t matter so why bother.  Instead, take a breath, think for a moment or two and figure out the next step to take.

Next – KEEP THE DOOM SCROLLING TO A MINIMUM. It’s easy to keep your eyes glued to the news like the election is a horserace in your free time and freak out. The mainstream media, whether they want to admit it or not, gives the right wing a wide berth and is more than willing to take their messaging and run with it.  But, as I said earlier, it isn’t the whole story.  Polls have been wrong in the past (remember when the majority of then predicted that Hillary Clinton would easily win the 2016 Presidential election) and as the 2020 election shows, we might not have the whole picture even as November 8th turns to November 9th and beyond. 

As a friend of mine in Los Angeles pointed out on social media – if you already voted doom scrolling is worthless. Instead focus on getting people out to the polls who haven’t voted yet and encourage others to do the same.  If you haven’t voted yet, make a plan and make sure you’re able to cast your ballot.  Focusing on the prize rather than the potential and possible obstacles to the prize can possibly do more good than doom scrolling and freaking out.

With this in mind let’s get to the next point: THE POLLS DON’T TELL THE WHOLE STORY:.  This should be obvious to anyone who remembers 2016 where the man we’d later come to know as the Mad Fuhrer of Mar-A-Lago had a less than 20% approval rating on election day yet somehow won the electoral vote and defeated Hillary Clinton.  In some cases this is because polls and surveys often rely on landlines (or at least used to) and don’t generally talk to people with cell phones (this may have changed given the decrease in people with land lines).  In other cases it’s because people generally try to avoid taking those surveys which leaves to room wide open for what I’m about to say.

SOMETIMES PEOPLE FLAT OUT LIE WHEN TAKING A SURVEY. Some have suggested it’s because those people who supported the Mad Fuhrer, either in 2016, 2020, or now, voters might not want their neighbors to know who they’re voting for. That;’s a possibility though one I doubt given how the MAGA crowd likes to shout from the rooftops.  Instead I want to throw this out there – they may be lying on purpose. 

Think about it. You suddenly see Democrats who, while remembering how the GOP was like under the Mad Fuhrer, who suddenly lean towards the GOP because of the economy and are willing to let their rights go away in the process. Sure it’s entirely possible there may be some low information voters like that (i.e.: those who vote a party line because their parents did et al).  But, even with that, there’s still a lot of anger over SCOTUS overturning Roe alone as well as the possible threats to a number of other rights and the coup attempt of January 6, 2021 that makes this more of an outlier than a solid movement.

Instead I think it may be likely that a lot of people who were going to vote for the GOP anyway may lie to pollsters and claim to be Democrats for the purposes of political dirty tricks. Not everyone may have done this (and yes, there’s a chance that those on the other side might do this as well) but there are some people on the right who follow bad faith actors be they pundits, politicians, and the like and have learned that keeping your side in power is the only thing and that any step they take is justified in the process. 

As a result this line of thinking could lead to people lying to pollsters in order to keep the other side scared and thinking that all is hopeless.  So, take this into account whenever you see the poll results – espeacilly as razor thin as most of them have been recently.

In addition, THINK SEVERAL STEPS AHEAD.  As I said in a previous post I don’t know how the election next week is going to go and neither do you.  Therefore it’s important to remember that voting alone doesn’t end this battle.  The fight will continue regardless of who wins next week.  If the GOP wins the fight will be steeper and a lot more bleak (yes it’s true that the GOP is becoming more and more fascist adjacent and a lot of people will be on the chopping block if they regain control of Congress).  However, don’t think that is the right wing loses that they’ll try and understand where their neighbors, friends, and family members who lean left are coming from and try to reach common ground.  In the past the right wing has gotten more extreme regardless of their outcome  - add extremist conspiracy theory garbage from groups we won’t name here to the mix and the fight will continue regardless. 

Ultimately though there’s one thing to mention – if you haven’t done so already VOTE. 

Right now it’s easy to look at the polls and think that all hope is lost. It’s even possible to fall into despair and think that, since they paint the election as already done, then there’s no point in voting.  This is understandable but one should remember that if you don’t vote then the other side wins. 

I know there’s no guarantee that one’s side will win the election, especially when factoring in the voter suppression laws that the GOP has pushed for since 2020. However assuming that all is lost means that you will almost definitely lose.  The only thing that matters now is for as many people to vote as possible and overpower the GOP’s plans.  It will be a little more difficult now than two years ago but it needs to be done.

As a friend of mine shared on social media – if you’ve already voted early limit the doom scrolling and get your friends and family members out to vote.  If you haven’t voted yet make a plan to do so  and make sure your ballot is cast.  As I said earlier in this post we might not know the results on election night but, regardless of what happens, the fight will continue. 

Just remember that, if you care about reproductive freedom LGBTQ rights and want voting to be more accessible (not harder) the side that’s not trying to marginalize people and try and make certain rights illegal on a Federal level will make the fight easier than if the Coupublicans win. 

Keep that in mind when you vote and vote your conscience.

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